Mega dating tips

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TheUnderground - Sharing only, no trades of any sort. Give and you shall receive.

2016.10.03 17:19 ReeZoX TheUnderground - Sharing only, no trades of any sort. Give and you shall receive.

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2020.09.20 18:09 ninjakitt3n [MEGA] OVER FOUR THOUSAND DOLLAR MEGA RAFFLE - 2412 at $2/ea

Scavenger Hunt Rules - If you get a random spot and it lands on #1000, you will get 20 free spots. If someone requests #1000, I will change the number.
Item Name: September MEGA Raffle - NES, MARIO, VOLTRON, BESPIN AND MORE
Date: 9/20/20
Set List: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14VRrCEwtwb0fLZ4bc5pIo4eTooYLWHnJz9RFg4rlmXo/edit?usp=sharing
Price: $4,426
Shipping: $400 USD (tracked + insured) $127 x 3 Boxes + Insurance + 3 Heavy Duty Expensive Boxes https://imgur.com/a/brthahc
Raffle Total/Spots: 2412 spots @ $2/spot Price justification? Lots of sources, all shown in spreadsheet
Call spots? Y
Spot limit per person? N
Duration of spot limit? N/A
Location (Country): USA
Will ship international? Y - winner pays difference and duties.
Timestamp/Pics: https://imgur.com/a/oR7MUDm
Description: The biggest MEGA raffle I've done to date! We have over $4000 of LEGO for one lucky winner to take home! Amazing new releases, super rare older sets, and limited production runs, this raffle has it all! Enjoy the awesome new NES with a perfect Mario selection of sets. Two massive TECHNIC sets for the engineer in all of us. Two incredibly rare and beautiful Chinese New Year sets. VOLTRON. And BESPIN. You seriously won't want to miss this raffle. Save your money folks, one person is going to have enough LEGO for the next two years.
Payment required within 30 minutes of raffle filling.

Tip BoyAndHisBlob
Number of vacant slots: 0
Number of unpaid users: 0
Number of unpaid slots: 0
This slot list is created and updated by The EDC Raffle Tool by BoyAndHisBlob.
The slot list contains 2412 slots and is too large to post. The current slot list can be found here.

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2020.09.19 19:44 OneSilverRaven Raven Reviews: IxSHE TELL Part 2, Love and War are NEVER Fair.

ALMOST A CHARACTER
When looking back on the first part of this review after I had posted it I felt like perhaps I had given the protagonist (Ninomiya Hajime) a poor representation. P-kun, or Protagonist-kun if you prefer, is a term I use to describe a VNs POV character when they are... less then developed. This isn't necessarily a condemnation of a novel (Yukizakura is a pretty good novel with this type of protagonist) but I'd be lying if I said I didn't use the term derogatorily. I am not blind to the fact that the appeal of "blank slate" protagonists in this genre specifically is higher then most, but I think the evidence is overwhelming that more beloved novels have more developed protagonists. Shirogane Takeru, Toomi Yuna, Emiya Shirou and others might not be what most people think of when recalling their stories but their is no doubt in my mind replacing them with a vehicle for easier self insertion would have been a mistake, as each is crucial to the feel of the narrative. Depending upon your opinion of DDLC as a parody of traditional novels you might even reference its call outs of the POV character as recognition that the vast majority of VN protagonists are not only underdeveloped but participate in actions that from an outside perspective they have no motivation to do. So when I reference IxSHE Tell and its protagonist I feel slightly bad about including him on the same list as Takao Ibuki rather then giants like Okabe Rintarou because he has SOME personality at least. So i'll make a compromise, just this once. When I can justify it I'll refer to the protagonist by name, and when he slips into self insert territory I'll call him out for it with P-kun, so if you see me switching back and forth in this review that's why. Part 2 is going to cover my thoughts on the common route and its assets so lets dive right in and talk about the title screen.
I DON'T THINK THAT CHAIR ACTUALLY APPEARS ONCE IN THE NOVEL
IxSHE Tell starts almost immediately upon launch with a loud trumpet filled intro track over a picture of five girls tightly clustered in front of a posh throne. A few weeks ago when I published my first review of HuniePop I commented at length about my personal pet peeve for title cards and this one is... not very good. For starters the characters are much closer together then on the promotional art picture of the exact same scene (the characters even have the same poses) and that tightness clutters the left side of the menu uncomfortably. The picture on VNDB is MUCH better and not only lets each character breath more but puts emphasis on the empty seat which was presumably left open for the reader. The draped curtains in the background and the bright gold of the title clash with the music as the upbeat tempo and almost party like tone conflict with what looks to be a much calmer and upper class if unusual arrangement formed by the heroines. As a group shot, this title card fails to show anything but the most superficial traits of its subjects. I guess you could gather Kozuka is younger then the others from her expression and clothing but her personality doesn't really fit the tone she's putting off with her body language and saying you could guess Yamabuki is a tsudere or Yuuki is confident from their posture is a stretch at bast. Muv-Luv's title card isn't PERFECT but it's a much better example of how things can be done right in a group shot where every character has something unique to convey their personality to the reader. Pretend you've never seen either of these novels before and compare just these two images on VNDB, the list of things you can guess about one game's characters is easily triple the length of the other. So not a great omen for whats going to come but who knows maybe the title card at 100% completion will be better...
BEING POPULAR AND FAMOUS
In the past year of 201X (Seriously? Mega Man style date? What is this a secret Sci-Fi novel? If you're so worried about accurately depicting a level of technology just leave the year unspecified nobody cares! All you're doing with this is drawing attention to it.) the novel opens with a strange bit of narration in which the student newspaper (presumably) talks about the virtues of P-kun... okay. And tells the reader about him by calling him the hero student council president. So we know this novel isn't compensating for anything out of the gate at least I mean we're JUST the legendary president of the student council it's not like we're also drowning in women or anything...
Anyway cut to an introduction to our first Heroine Yamabuki Yoshino presented with a cute title card claiming she "Can't fully hide her true feelings" so look forward to embarrassing the soul out of her all game. She's okay I guess, her introduction is twenty minutes of nagging P-kun in her capacity as vice president while everyone tells P-kun how great he is and stuff. Then she falls over for a pantsu CG and the whole thing is so forced and unbelievable it comes off as a joke which is REALLY not want I wanted my FIRST interaction with this girl to be like but hey maybe you like seeing strong women humiliated to the tune of epic suspenseful music more suited to a poorly done Lord of the Rings video game then a VN, no judgment.
The rest of the student council, all one of them, is introduced (Hakuwa Shoukichi) as well as presumably the president (Kozuka Yui) and vice president (Ninomiya Aoba) of the neighboring sister school who's name is unimportant enough I'm not going to bother looking it up but it directly feeds its students into P-kun's academy so thats nice. Aoba is P-kun's sister and an adorable brat, she and Shoukichi spend the entire novel as one note characters i'll discuss in detail later but both are pretty enjoyable to have around. For story purposes all you need to know is Shoukichi has a crush on the school idle and does all the student council grunt work while Aoba is three steps down from spoiled rotten and oscillates between totally obnoxious and sickeningly sweet and clingy. Oh and she's friends with Yui I guess.
Speaking of which Yui gets her own title card "Both childlike and mature" (THAT'S not code for anything) and has the best romance introduction in the game. Hajime pulls her aside and tells her that as a fellow student body president he wants to ask her for her advice. He's having doubts what he's doing is the right thing. Today's student council meeting was all about the abolition of the centuries old ban on romantic relationship he had pretty much single handedly championed and gotten passed and how it was going to affect the school. Yoshino, again, his vice president, had originally run against him as a supporter of the ban and still speaks out against it despite working with him diligently as he was the people's choice. Hajime expresses his fears for the future and openly questions if this new freedom will come at the cost of some people's comfort who will now be subject to unwanted advances. Yui's response is so well crafted I can't do it justice in this summery but she asks point blank if she is the only one who knows Hajime feels this way. When he reply's affirmatively she takes responsibility for all his fears, and dismisses them. As the only person who COULD blame him, by choosing not to she makes it so their is now no one who does. Again the scene is MUCH better then this but I still have over half the cast to introduce so take my word for it, GREAT first impression from Yui.
Next comes Yuuki Ayaka, the school idol and two year winner of some beauty pageant. Apparently she's voiced by Oohashi Ayuru who is an idol herself which is a neat touch but her introduction here is UNBEARABLE... Her Heroine quirk is "Fary-Tale ideas of romance" which translates to referring to herself as "Perfect and Kawaii" every third paragraph and rejecting the advances of over a dozen guys, including poor Shoukichi, and some unnamed student directly in front of P-kun and Yui on their walk home. Realizing P-kun is there, she flat out presses her butt on his groin while saying to his face he, as the schools most popular boy, is the only man she could accept the confession of. Which prompts P-kun to freak out internally as he apparently has a crush on her and is a member of her "fan club" whatever that means. Apparently Ayaka and Yui know each other and Ayaka is teasingly warm to Yui's teasingly cold, bet that's going to come up later. Anyway P-kun gets Ayaka to blush after she DECIMATES poor off screen confession bro and the scene ends.
We pick up with P-kun walking home with his childhood friend Hanamori Shiori who I THINK is the front runner for best hair but we'll have to see. Her quirk is "Madly in love, single-minded devotion," and she will oscillate between too shy to function and creepily obsessed with P-kun for the rest of the novel until the romance branches. Her scene here is completely forgettable and uninteresting because the only thing that matters is that you know she's P-kun's childhood friend.
At the dorms Hajime and Shiori apparently live at together with Yoshino (Because THAT'S fair to the other heroines.) a new student is transferring in after the semester already started in true anime style and she immediately latches onto Hajime during their introduction. This is Koshimizu Kasumi, the apparent LOSER of best hair by popular vote which is a darn shame because the indigo tints on her tips are pretty cute, but that's a topic for later. Apparently she knew Hajime, Aoba and Shiori from their childhood where she was really sickly and Hajime would come visit her and bring her the schoolwork she missed. This left such a huge impression on the girl she developed her quirk "Pure, unabashed adoration" of Hajime and now that she's all better and able to go to public school again ten years after they met she's here to reunite with her white knight. Honestly it's a pretty touching story that feels a little rushed but OH BOY wait till we get the resolution to this one down the line it is going to get SO much more painful to read.
But enough of that, it's time to meet the best character in the game Hanamori Yasumasa! Yasumasa is Shiori's little brother, which makes him YOUR little brother by right of childhood friendship, and he's adorable. Your introduction to him is at the last meeting of the club you preside over together hilariously called The Horny Brigadier Brotherhood with the sole goals of creating and maintaining a free, secure network to browse porn at the school and abolish the relationship ban. Today's meeting disbands the group as Hajime steps down from his position as general (Which is weird right I mean can you even be the president of two groups simultaneously in Japanese schools I didn't know that was a thing but regardless) and Yasumasa is the vice president. When one of the members gets too rowdy Yasu threatens to suck him off and I'm going to have to stop this whole review for a second because that one line is my favorite in the whole novel.
Full context, I am a bisexual man. I lean about 60/40 in favor of women and didn't discover this part of my sexuality until I was in college, so the majority of my taste is centered around more traditional media rather then BL or Yaoi, but I do dabble in that as well. Yasu as a bisexual character is something I almost never get to see because in the words of my real life little brother "Japan only has two sexualities it recognizes, straight and fetish." Even setting that aside though for all the LGBTQ+ representation in American and Japanese media the B part of that is actually really hard to find good examples of in media ESPECIALLY male versions. They exist, but in recent years especially what little their is often gets drowned beneath a sea of purely homosexual characters and stories so its harder and harder to find. I can't tell you how excited I was to have this opportunity presented to me to see a good bisexual character because this game has a real chance to positively portray him and might even give the barest note of something between him and Hajime. I wasn't expecting a full romance route or anything, but their has to be a failure route in this game, and THAT is the perfect place to put something. It doesn't have to be flashy, maybe just a confession scene where Hajime, who rejected every one of these five girls, is approached by Yasu who questions him about why he's still single. It could end with a kind rejection, CG optional, or maybe even a kiss after the fade to black if they want to spoil me but this is a golden egg I'm BEGGING you Japan don't waste this...
After the meeting Hajime returns to his room and the narrative shifts to view the three love interests he boards with in the bath. Now I'm by no means a pearl clutching reactionary, but their is literally no reason for this scene to take place in the bath outside of Echii. If you didn't install the H-patch the scene is bland and has absolutely no character sprites. If you did the camera hugs the largest tits in the room as the girls talk. This conversation could easily have been anywhere else in the building but whatever the first CG in this game was an up-skirt pantsu shot so I guess this isn't as egregious as THAT. This does give me a good opportunity though to mention I WILL be including the H-patch content in this review but I'll be sectioning it off as much as possible to it's own subsection. When I eventually get to the romance routes I'll be glazing over everything Echii but this particular scene was kind of unavoidable to mention because Kasumi announces that she is going to confess to Hajime in front of the other two girls... and then immediately gets out of the tub and does it! I don't know why I find that so surprising but we as readers met this character literally twenty minutes ago in and out of game so this is REALLY forward but I guess points for confidence.
Kasumi's confession takes place in P-kun's room and is... a mixed bag. On the one hand her story, that she was a sickly girl P-kun would visited frequently ten years ago to bring homework and spend time with before she moved away for her health thus causing her to motivate herself to get better so she can one day reunite with her white knight is touching and romantic but also feels kind of rushed for a reason I can't quite explain. Maybe its the way she tells the story but I get the sense it would have been more impactful if it had a few more sentences of build up somewhere but for what it is it's serviceable. Hajime, understandably, politely tells Kasumi the two of them just met kind of and while he's flattered she feels so strongly about him he can't return her feelings as of yet because he knows so little about her. So not fully rejecting her but not saying yes either, just a request to get to know her first. Then she trips on him and the camera zooms on her boobs. So that ruins the mood as Yoshino comes in to tell P-kun he's terrible.
A DAY OF CONFESSIONS
The second half of the prologue begins with Kasumi transferring into P-kun's class, because of course she is. the next five minutes are background nobodies saying she's pretty. After a time skip to lunch these murmurs of Kasumi's apparent good looks reach all the way to the third year classes apparently because Ayaka bursts into the class to see her new competition appalled that Kasumi has been here less then 14 hours and has already confessed to her "crush." After establishing that Ayaka and Kasumi are now maybe possibly rivals not only for P-kun's affections but the beauty contest crown as well Yui, who apparently ran all the way from the sister school, bursts into the room, catches her breath, and asks Ayaka point blank if she is also here to confess to P-kun. If all of this is sounding rushed don't worry it is.
Yui makes the kind gesture of apologizing in advance to Kasumi, who without question got to P-kun first, but nonetheless confesses her love in front of the whole class which WAY too embarrassing even for me and I can't help but think this poor girl is going to be RELENTLESSLY teased for this but whatever its cute she's so brave. Hajime gives her the same response he gave Kasumi, stating he wants to consider both of them before deciding, which is pretty cool of him not ganna lie. Kasumi takes it really well considering she's standing right there as it all happens and says she likes the idea the boy she loves is so popular so as many girls can confess to him as possible without bothering her. Everyone acts real mature about the whole situation and honestly the atmosphere of the whole thing is pretty sweet.
Then Ayaka interrupts the mood tripping over herself to ask P-kun out too.
Yeah, this is the worst confession in the game and her reasoning that "We should date because we're popular" is ridiculous. I don't have any jokes about this I just find it really poorly executed, 0 points.
After that P-kun is chased out of the classroom and down the hall by a ravenous group of girls in a brief break for levity before the novel establishes P-kun is apparently remembering arm day because he hoists himself into the student council room through the window, and will do so on a regular bases throughout the rest of the novel. Inside he's greeted by Shiori, Yoshino, Yui, and Kasumi as well as the entire student council important enough to have a sprite. Yoshino, unable to take the second hand embarrassment of the girls who already confessed to P-kun cooks up a ridiculous plan. She confesses her "love" for him, saying she wants to have the most debauched relationship possible to get the romance ban reinstated and end all this chaos. The only important part of this is that no one thinks she doesn't actually like him and just felt jealous so she did something rash. Aoba asks if her brother is going to die tomorrow to keep karmic balance and at this point I wouldn't be surprised if he did.
Anyway somehow this group chooses to be productive after all that and discussion begins on a PR campaign that the photography club, of which Shiori is a part, will be helping with. Hajime is nominated to be one of the models for a series of posters showing a model couple for students to look up to and the remaining girls fight over who will be his partner in the pictures. Everyone has their own reasons for why they should be picked but just when the reader may think they'll be given the first choice of the game Hajime (After a day of deliberation, a visit to the cafe Ayaka's parents own in which she works so SHE can be in on this, a much better and cuter scene then her introduction with Shiori at the dorm, and an admittedly pretty good fake out when Hajime gives a speech to the student body about the right to love in which we get a LOT of time with Yoshino.) just chooses Kasumi and the whole thing resolves... and then Shiori confesses her feelings in front of the other girls in the weirdest, most unsettling way possible.
In a CG where she twists her head to look over her shoulder as it tilts back, Shiori, backed by the most ominous track possible, expresses she has loved P-kun since childhood blah blah that parts not interesting she looks like a total Yandere. Like no joke if this was the only picture you had to go on, which at this point it is, you'd expect this game to devolve into Love Letter at some point down the line it is TERRIFYING! Gotta admit though her stance of "If all it takes to get a yes from you is to get to know each other then I should easily win because I've known you for years." is a pretty good argument. Seriously though I really can't stress this enough she isn't just setting off a red flag it's BLOOD red.
OKAY MAYBE THIS IS A LITTLE TOO POPULAR.
The first of five subsections in the common route opens with P-kun being chased by a hoard of women and a 90's style record scratch sonic movie opening "Yeah, thats me, if you wanna know how I got here we have to go back to-" in medias res. Now because of the way the heart system works my summery from this point on is going to SOUND really surface level and bare but for every scene I gloss over with a sentence it is entirely possible something takes place that may not be important to the STORY but was purely designed to endear the reader to the heroine featured in it. I'll point out any moments I feel are noteworthy but just because not much PLOT happens doesn't mean NOTHING happens alright?
P-kun has a flashback to this morning when Yoshino walked him to school and the two of them were mobbed by a hoard of girls who either want to ask him out or ask him about the girls who asked him out. He runs and abandons Yoshino to the wolves. Good boy Yasu meets up with Hajime for the cross view section which I will cover quickly. Yui's scene is just talking with Moka and getting pumped to go spend time with P-kun. Yoshino deals with the aftermath of being abandoned. Kasumi meets a cat girl and acts cute. Ayaka is swarmed by fans who agree to help her track down Hajime and Shiori has a panic attack. You see what I mean about these summaries? Each of those scenes was probably a ten minute read where not much happens but you're able to spend time with the heroines. I'd love to go line by line and talk about how charming some of these moments are but this review is already a monster so I'm just going to have to move on.
Yasu is being blackmailed into helping the mob of girls but he nobly sacrifices himself for p-kun to escape, fainting to distract them. Hajime ends up at his favorite spot on campus, the Clock Tower, where Ayaka visits him and they have a chat. Apparently Ayaka's fan club is working like a not so secret service to give her an advantage. Which I kind of want to say is cheating but will let slide because the other girls get outside help from their friends later in the novel. Anyway the mob finds them and Hajime flees again, this time to the auditorium where Kasumi gives him a lunch since he probably hadn't had a chance to eat yet and if you don't give her a heart for that you're a monster this is a legitimately sweet gesture. Hajime freaks out that she was keeping the milk she got him between her breasts, must be a Japanese thing because I don't know a single teenage boy who would care. Anyway you can guess what happens, they're found, he flees, this time he's pulled into an unused room by Shiori who sits on his lap, which is somehow NOT a CG but whatever I'm not salty. The title screen has her in a close position to what I imagined anyway. Anyway more girls and more fleeing. (How long has this been going on don't you kids have class to get to?) Now Hajime climbs trough the student council room window again and finds Yui who stuffs him under her desk to prevent him from being spotted and we get ANOTHER pantsu shot which is WAY over quota now and its not even tasteful. Like this is full on up the skirt vag view, for which Hajime is rightfully punished by... being crushed between Yui's thighs... are we sure this is before the Echii patch add ons?
The school day comes to an end when literally every heroine, Aoba, and Moka all end up at Ayaka's cafe (she had invited Hajime their in the earlier scene) and they talk for a bit about who Hajime is going to take on a date. For the first extra scene the reader gets to make that choice. Kasumi takes him to the mall where she clings to his arm, not a great scene but playful I guess. Yoshino runs into her political supporters against relationships and forces Hajime to pretend they are just out together as friends. Ayaka has a truly forgettable scene of walking with Hajime. But the two stand outs are definitely Shiori and Yui. Shiori has a scene I'm guessing is much more sexual in Japan where you measure her cup size, I don't know maybe that's your thing I just can't get over the *squish* sound effect it's like a bad anime skit. Yui calls you Onii-chan for the ONLY time in the novel and asks you to pet her head which is ADORABLE and it is a CRIME this is the only time this happens.
Next day, new batch of hearts.
Hajime runs out of ink for his pen... Theirs a joke here somewhere but I can't quite find it... anyway Yoshino offers him some of hers... god I really feel like I'm missing an innuendo here. Hajime turns her down and runs off to the campus store where he runs into cat girl and Ayaka. Apparently the store needs to sell a whole bunch of noodles nobody wants and cat girl is depressed about it. Ayaka offers to do a handshake event, which I guess is a Japanese thing where when you buy a certain amount of a product you get to touch a celebrity, and volunteers Hajime to be there too, so that's the plot of this subsection. All the girls find out about it and have their own reactions. The cross view section lays out their plans. Shiori skips class to be first in line. Ayaka uses her fame to advertise. Kasumi volunteers to work the store in exchange for four times the necessary amount of noodles to qualify for a handshake. Yoshino beats herself up over wanting to go to the event and not having a good excuse (She's really starting to lean into that aggressively shy personality about romance.) And Yui has a HEARTBREAKING scene where she thinks about how even the short distance between the two sister schools is a roadblock to her romantic prospects because unlike all the other girls she has to run every day to even SEE Hajime and they just have to go to class. She finds out about the handshake event but by then she knows she'll be way back in the line. Oh and Aoba has a scene where she tries to price gouge people and fails miserably, so that exists.
Anyway the actual event takes place and all the Heroines get a chance to interact with Hajime, the scene comes off as a bit comedic with Yui wearing a disguise so the artist can make use of the alternate lab coat outfit she has for no good reason. Yoshino's indecisiveness makes it so she gets in line too late to buy any noodles but Kasumi gives her half of the ones set aside for her day of work. Ayaka cracks some pretty good jokes, and the whole thing ends with a photo shoot for the whole group where Ayaka surprise kisses Hajime on the cheek. And Shiori is there too. Then you get the least interesting extra scenes in the game. I mean they aren't BAD they're just comparatively the worst of the bunch. Ayaka tells you she was embarrassed to kiss you but swears she wants to make your heart flutter. Yoshino acts embarrassed on the walk back from school and runs off. Hajime just kind of chats with Shiori, walks Yui home, and gives Kasumi her "handshake" after she teases you. Nothing terrible just nothing super interesting either.
FAVORITISM
The next scene is a fireworks festival and the best part of the whole game. I mean it if you could somehow only play one part of this novel THIS is the part you should do it is cute, fun, has great jokes, honestly its better then any of the romance routes so if this review has gotten you interested in the game I honestly recommend a blind look at it you'll have a blast.
The girls get into an argument about who is going to be Hajime's date to the festival and decide to play a game called King to determine the winner and while I would have LIKED to have this scene take multiple paths it always plays out the same way but the jokes here are top notch as the girls all try to one up each other. Theirs a CG of playing the Pocky game with Yoshino and it's adorable, honestly Yoshino kind of steals the show during the game till she passes out peso pon. Eventually the girls all drop out one by one until Kasumi wins and gets the right to your fireworks date. But tragedy! That night she calls Hajime saying she lost a special pendent and just can't leave the house without it. So he tells her to stay put since it's getting dark and goes to the school to look for it.
The cross view this time around has the first of two tied for worst scenes in the game and some really cute moments. Kasumi ruminates on how cool you are for understanding she can't go on the date with you and decides to go to the school to look there even though you told her not to, but she's the outlier because literally all the rest of the heroines plan a big party at Hajime's dorm on Aoba's suggestion. In Yui's scene we see her upset that she lost the game with the other girls and Aoba suggests the party to cheer her up, why the developer decided this scene needed to be done from both Yui's AND Aoba's perspective when Yui would have been fine on her own I don't know but I HATE when visual novels repeat themselves like that it's maddening. The difference is literally six lines of dialogue but to find it I have to sift through all this stuff I JUST read, it's a waist of time. If you want me to have both perspectives, wright the scene in two parts and put one after the other, like Aoba recommends the party and then Yui thinks about what a great friend she is shortly after ANYTHING ELSE but this. Shiori, Ayaka, and Yoshino all get invited and agree to go. Their's also a really nice scene of some random no name guys talking about Hajime and how jealous they are of him but it's not mean spirited or anything they act really casual about it, honestly this might be my personal favorite of the cross fades its just got a really nice atmosphere to it.
Hajime arrives at the school and tells off my boy Yasu for bringing a camera to school to catch couples getting frisky on campus during the fireworks which totally sounds like its going to happen given the recently lifted ban on romance making people lose themselves in the moment but Hajime is a total cock block and tells him to go home. After a long time searching Hajime bumps into Kasumi and just when they're about to lose hope and go home the fireworks start and a glint of light leads Kasumi right to her pendent on the ground. Overjoyed, but sad they missed their chance at a date, they head back to the dorm to find the party in full swing and have a great time. the extra scenes are all post festivities and range from decent to too cute to exist. Yui and Ayaka get walked home, nothing super interesting but sweet. Shiori helps clean things up and you do the dishes together like a married couple. But Kasumi and Yoshino definitely win this round. Yoshino, like a boo from Mario, inches closer to Hajime when he looks away but losses her nerve when he looks at her. Intentionally turning to see what she's trying to do but without looking directly at her he sees her creep up and lock pinkies with him with a triumphant "Yay! I did it!" under her breath. He responds by holding her hand and the two of them clean the outside party area together. Kasumi looks up at the starts and talks to herself about how fortunet she is to have met Hajime and when he approaches her she asks if, just for a moment, he'll let her think of him as her hero as she cries on his chest in relief she still has her pendent. It's not a long scene, but it is incredibly touching.
the next subsection is a party at the dorm, no not the party we just had a different one, this time a sleepover. Theirs a scene with Hajime's teacher who I have purposely avoided speaking about until this point. Rest assured she has been here the entire time I just don't think she's very important. This is the exception however as Hajime runs off to save her from drunk driving and we get the cross view early. Ayaka stresses over what to wear with Moka, a scene we also get from Moka's perspective, same problem as last time don't worry I won't repeat myself. Yui rolls around in Hajime's bed, which I don't THINK is an innuendo in this case but who knows? Kasumi tries to bribe Aoba into giving up information on her brother and gets conned. Yoshino agonizes some more about being in love and Shiori hits her brother while thinking about getting treated like a 50's wife. Hajime brings the teacher back to the party and she kisses his cheek before being murdered off screen by five jealous women.
After ANOTHER scene in the bath involving talk about all kinds of girl stuff it would be inappropriate for me to reveal here due to its private nature Hajime goes to take a bath of his own and all the girls show up in their swimsuits because OF COURSE we need a swimsuit scene this is a VISUAL NOVEL come on! Their is a lot of unnecessary boobs and then extra scene time. Ayaka is outside and reiterates to Hajime her desire to make his heart flutter. Yui sits on the couch with him and lets him pet her. Yoshino also gets head pats. Shiori comes to visit and nearly kisses p-kun and Kasumi burns her sensitive tongue after an indirect kiss. It's all really cute, good note to end the extra scenes on.
The last section of the common route is the Haloween party and this is the point the narrative has been building toward. Tonight, Hajime chooses one of the girls to ask to the dance and finally gets a girlfriend and it is the least interesting part of the whole novel. It's not TOTALLY worthless, Yui and Kasumi get to be pretty cute but 90% of this section is just the heroines agonizing over who he's going to choose. Theirs a subplot about Yui being too busy to go to the party but its resolved quickly and the whole cast ends up together for a little free time and competition that Kasumi and Yui totally win. Something to note in the cross views is my good boy Yasu reveals he's into traps and shows the entire student council, all one of him, a picture on his phone of one. The scene ends with the first and only choice of the game. Who won your heart?
THE LONG ROAD TO ROMANCE
In the previous part I alluded to the fact I would be discussing the entire rest of the game in part 2 but as you could guess from the fact their is a paragraph left in this post I'm going to have to renege on that. I have no intention of stopping here but I'm going to need to make this a three parter at least, I just bit off more then I can chew. Next week, I'll focus on what happens with each heroine when she gets the chance to interact with P-kun by herself. If you're liking this review so far be sure to let me know as I'm putting a LOT more work into this one and feedback is the only way I can know if it's paying off. If you've read the novel let me know what you think of my summery, naturally I had to leave a lot out but I'm curious to see if you would have included something I overlooked or vise versa. Regardless, I hope you were entertained, stay well!
submitted by OneSilverRaven to visualnovels [link] [comments]


2020.09.12 14:02 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning September 14th, 2020

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on smallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning September 14th, 2020.

Investors will look to the Fed to soothe the market next week, but that may be a tall order - (Source)

Markets are looking to the Federal Reserve to be a soothing force when it meets in the week ahead, but stocks could remain choppy if the central bank disappoints and as investors focus on the election and the economic recovery.
The Fed’s two-day meeting is expected to end Wednesday with minor tweaks to its statement and some clarity on how it plans to use forward guidance. The Fed also updates its economic and interest rate outlook, including forecasts for 2023 for the first time.
But Quincy Krosby, chief investment strategist at Prudential Financial, said the stock market could easily be disappointed because the Fed is unlikely to offer more clarity on monetary policy, such as plans for bond buying.
“The market is concerned the Fed is not going to give us explicit readings on their plans for monetary policy,″ she said. The Fed’s extraordinary policies have been an important factor behind the stock market’s 50% surge from the March 23 low, and it’s also seen as a major factor limiting the depth of the market’s sell-off.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, said the Fed is not likely to tweak much and it continues to buy $80 billion a month in Treasurys. “I don’t think they’ll do anything to the markets either way,” he said.
Stocks were volatile in the past week, falling hard, rallying, falling and rallying again. That left the S&P 500 with a weekly decline of about 2.5%, its worst week since June. The harder hit Nasdaq was down about 4.1% for the week, its worst weekly decline since March. The quadruple expiration of options and futures at the end of the coming week could add to the volatility.
Bank of America strategists said the bond market is watching the Fed for any balance sheet adjustments and the changes to its forward guidance, which includes the Fed’s recent tweak in its inflation policy. The Fed changed its policy of focusing on a target inflation rate to an average rate, meaning it may not tighten policy if inflation overshoots its 2% target.
“We see risk the rates market is underwhelmed by the guidance provided by the Fed, which would support higher back-end rates and a steeper curve,” the Bank of America strategists noted. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield slid in the past week, touching 0.67% Friday, and it could move higher, meaning bonds may sell-off, if the Fed does not clarify policy around its bond buying program.
Krosby said the stock market is hoping for a dovish Fed. “The market needs that now because fiscal policy is going nowhere,” she said.
BTIG strategist Julian Emanuel said the market could focus on the fact that Congress failed to make headway on fiscal stimulus, if the economic data begins to disappoint.
Retail sales for August are expected Wednesday morning, as the Fed meets. They are expected to rise by 1%, and that should be an important look at whether the lack of enhanced unemployment benefits, which expired July 31, impacted consumer spending. Among other things, Republicans and Democrats could not agree how to replace the $600 weekly payment to the unemployed.
“Depending on the polls and the economic data, the probability of stimulus rises and falls,” said Emanuel, head of equity and derivatives strategy.
“Our view is that next week is just going to be lots of back and forth with the potential for a further extension of the range for the downside, if the political narrative gets more inflamed,” said Emanuel. Emanuel expects the market to remain choppy and fall further into the month of October, as investors worry about the uncertainty around the presidential election.
The Fed’s meeting this week is its last before the election, and analysts expect Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to sound reassuring that the Fed will do whatever it takes to support the economy. Powell holds a briefing after the meeting Wednesday, and he is expected to also be asked about the potential for higher inflation. The Fed has said it is more concerned about disinflation, but recent inflation data has been hotter than expected, though still well below 2%.
“There is a tug of war between those who say buy chips now because inflation is moving higher, versus those why are saying deflationary forces are still weaving their way into the economy,” said Krosby.
Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, said he expects the Fed to sound reassuring but it’s not likely to discuss a target for bond purchases or the yield curve controls some investors were hoping for. Yield curve control would mean the Fed would try to manage interest rates by targeting its purchases of specific Treasurys. For instance, it may focus on trying to keep longer duration yields lower, and buy the 10-year.
Chandler also noted the Fed’s $7 trillion balance sheet has recently declined by about $100 billion from its peak, and its bond purchases are falling behind the European Central Bank.
“My sense is the Fed is going to keep saying it’s not worried about inflation. Its bigger worry is downside risks. They’ll repeat their call for fiscal stimulus which after this week seems less likely,” he said.
Chandler said the stock market could remain choppy in the coming week, but he does not expect a sharp selloff. The dollar could decline, if the Fed sounds dovish, and that is a positive for stocks.
“I don’t think a 10% pullback [in Nasdaq] has caused enough pain to have people capitulate. This is just an ordinary correction, and we’re going to make new highs,” he said.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!)

Election Charts You Need To See: Part 1

First off, our thoughts go out to everyone who was impacted by the tragic events of September 11, 2001—19 years ago today. It is a day to reflect and remember those who were lost.
One of the top requests we’ve had here at LPL Research is for more charts on the election. Over the next week, we will share some of our favorite charts on this very important subject.
Here’s how the S&P 500 Index performs under various presidents and congressional makeups. The best scenario has historically been a Democratic president and Republican Congress, while a Republican president and Democratic Congress has been the weakest.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Building on this, a split Congress historically has been one of the best scenarios for investors.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The best scenario under a Republican president is a split Congress, a potential positive for 2020 that has played out after the massive reversal in the stock market since March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Looking at the four-year presidential cycle shows that stocks haven’t been down during a year the president was up for a re-election since FDR in the 1940s, another bullish tailwind for 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another look at this, as stocks historically have done much better when there isn’t a lame duck president.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Active Managers Do an About Face

The National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) has an index which tracks the exposure of its members to US equity markets. Each week, members are asked to provide a number that represents their exposure to markets. A reading of -200 means they are leveraged short, -100 indicates fully short, 0 is neutral, 100% is fully invested, and 200% indicates leveraged long. Two weeks ago, in our Bespoke Report, we highlighted the fact that the exposure index had moved to one of the highest levels in its 15-year history. Now, just two weeks later, these same active managers have reigned in their exposure considerably as this week's reading dropped from just under 100 to 53.1.
This week's drop was the second-largest one week decline in the index's history and just the 10th time that the index lost more than a third (33 points) in a single week. The most recent occurrence was back in early March in the middle of the Covid crash, and every other prior period where the index saw a similar drop, the S&P 500 was also down every time by an average of 2.3%. Therefore, it's not much of a surprise to see the big drop this week given the big declines in the market. But what about going forward? Do big drops in the NAAIM Index mean a bounce back for markets or further declines?
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The Most and Least Heavily Shorted Stocks in the Russell 1,000

Below is an updated look at the most heavily shorted stocks in the Russell 1,000. Each of these 30 stocks has at least 15% of its equity float sold short.
At the top of the list is Nordstrom (JWN) with 38.66% of its float sold short. With a YTD decline of 61.86%, the shorts have crushed it with JWN this year.
With its huge portfolio of office and retail real estate, Brookfield Property REIT(BPYU) has the second highest short interest in the Russell 1,000 at 33.7%. BPYU is down 35.7% YTD.
There are plenty of other well-known companies on the list of the most heavily shorted stocks. Examples include American Airlines (AAL), Virgin Galactic (SPCE), LendingTree (TREE), Wayfair (W), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), ADT, TripAdvisor (TRIP), Beyond Meat (BYND), and Kohl's (KSS).
One name that is no longer on the list of most shorted stocks is Tesla (TSLA). When we provided an update on short interest back in February (a pre-COVID world), Tesla (TSLA) had more than 17% of its float sold short, but that number is all the way down to 8.3% as of the most recent filing.
These 30 stocks with the highest short interest are down an average of 3.01% since last Wednesday (9/2) when the S&P 500 made its last closing high. That's actually a little bit better than the 3.55% average decline for the rest of the stocks in the Russell 1,000. And year-to-date, these 30 stocks are up an average of 0.60% versus an average gain of 0.81% for the rest of the index. That's not much of a difference!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below is a list of the 30 least shorted stocks in the Russell 1,000 as a percentage of equity float. None of these stocks have more than 0.71% of their float sold short, and they're mostly made up of more conservative names in the Health Care and Consumer Staples sectors.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) has the lowest short interest as a percentage of float in the Russell 1,000 at just 0.36%. Microsoft (MSFT) -- one of the key mega-cap Tech names -- has the second lowest short interest, followed by Merck (MRK), Eli Lilly (LLY), and Medtronic (MDT).
Somewhat surprisingly, Amazon (AMZN) is the sixth least shorted stock in the entire Russell 1,000. While AMZN is still thought of as a high-flying momentum name by many investors, its short interest levels tell a much different story, painting it as more of a non-cyclical stock like Pepsi (PEP), Procter & Gamble (PG), or Coca- Cola (KO).
While the 30 most heavily shorted stocks in the Russell 1,000 are up 0.60% YTD, the 30 least shorted stocks in the index are up much more at +8%. This group has MSFT, AMZN, HD, and AAPL to thank for that strong performance!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

5 Lessons Learned About Rising Rates

While the direction of the 10-year Treasury yield over the last cycle was decidedly lower, as shown in LPL’s Chart of the Day, there were still six extended periods where it rose at least 0.75%, and in two of those it rose almost 2%. Looking ahead, economic growth below potential, slack in the labor market, and an extremely supportive Federal Reserve (Fed) may limit rate pressure in the near term, but with interest rates already low and massive stimulus in place, we believe the overall direction is likely to be higher.
“Even in a falling rate period there are lessons from the last cycle about rising rates,” said LPL Financial Chief Investment Officer Burt White. “Among them: Careful when the Fed stops buying and sometimes the best defense is a good offense.”
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While every economic cycle is unique, the last cycle highlighted these key takeaways about periods of rising rates:
  • Careful when the Fed stops buying. The two drivers of rising rates last cycle were economic growth and Fed bond purchases, also known as quantitative easing (QE). The Fed buys bonds to keep rates down, but the start of Fed buying has actually been the time when rates rise—likely on expectations that the purchases would help strengthen the economy. These periods also often followed large rate declines either because markets anticipated the start of Fed buying or the economy was faltering. The takeaway: unless the economy is really taking off, any rising-rate period may pause for an extended period, or even reverse, when the Fed backs off bond purchases.
  • Sometime the best defense is a good offense. Lower-quality, more economically sensitive bond sectors actually performed well during periods of rising rates during the last cycle. Rate gains were largely driven by economic improvement rather than a large pick-up in inflation, and that’s typically a good environment for sectors like high-yield bonds and bank loans. The downside is that these are much riskier bond sectors and don’t provide the potential diversification benefits of higher-quality bonds during periods of stock declines.
  • Don’t expect TIPS to provide much resilience because of their inflation adjustment. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are high-quality bonds that have provided a little extra insulation against rising rates compared to similarly dated Treasuries when inflation expectations increased. TIPS prices are adjusted for inflation, but even with the adjustment, they are still very sensitive to rates.
  • Investment-grade corporates can both hurt and help. If credit spreads narrow when rates are rising, investment-grade corporates can post some solid gains in a rising-rate environment, but if spreads are holding steady or even widening, they can be very sensitive to changes in Treasury yields, potentially (although not often) even more sensitive than Treasuries.
  • Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) have not provided as much insulation as corporates, but they also have had less downside. While MBS have certainly outperformed Treasuries during periods of rising rates, they have not performed as well as investment-grade corporates. But they also have come with less downside, losing only 1.4% in their worst performing period compared to a 4% loss during the worst period for corporates. With the Fed still providing strong stimulus and economic growth potentially poised to accelerate, we currently see an increased risk of rates moving higher. We are playing some offense with our equity exposure, which allows us to emphasize a focus on higher-quality bonds. Among bond sectors, we are emphasizing MBS and still prefer investment-grade corporates over Treasuries. History may not repeat, but if it rhymes, this positioning may help add resilience to a fixed income portfolio if rates extend their move off recent lows.
With the Fed still providing strong stimulus and economic growth potentially poised to accelerate, we currently see an increased risk of rates moving higher. We are playing some offense with our equity exposure, which allows us to emphasize a focus on higher-quality bonds. Among bond sectors, we are emphasizing MBS and still prefer investment-grade corporates over Treasuries. History may not repeat, but if it rhymes, this positioning may help add resilience to a fixed income portfolio if rates extend their move off recent lows.

Best and Worst Performing Stocks Since the 9/2 High

Since the S&P 500 and Nasdaq peaked on September 2nd, we've seen rotation out of the post-COVID winners and rotation into laggards in the value space. Below we take a look at the best and worst performing stocks in the Russell 1,000 since the 9/2 high for the S&P. For each stock, we also include its YTD total return and its percentage change from the 3/23 COVID Crash low through 9/2.
Capri Holdings (CPRI) is up more than any other stock in the Russell 1,000 since 9/2 with a gain of 17.43%. Even after the recent gains, however, Capri -- the holding company for brands like Michael Kors, Jimmy Choo, and Versace -- is still down 52.9% year-to-date.
Only four other stocks are up more than 10% since 9/2 -- Beyond Meat (BYND), PVH, Virtu Financial (VIRT), and Reinsurance Group (RGA). Interestingly, BYND and VIRT are also up big (~80%) year-to-date, while PVH and RGA are both down more than 35% year-to-date.
What stands out the most about the list of winners is that only one Technology stock made the cut -- Sabre (SABR). Most names come from the two consumer sectors including cruise-liners like Carnival (CCL), Royal Caribbean (RCL) and Norwegian Cruise (NCLH), Kohl's (KSS), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Six Flags (SIX), Foot Locker (FL), and Ralph Lauren (RL). Both UBER and LYFT also made the cut with gains of 6% since 9/2. The 30 biggest winners since 9/2 are still down an average of 20% year-to-date, while the rest of the stocks in the Russell 1,000 are up an average of 1.46% YTD.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While only one Technology stock made the list of biggest winners since 9/2, the sector accounts for two-thirds of the 30 biggest losers over the same time frame. As shown below, since 9/2, the six worst performing stocks in the Russell 1,000 and ten of the worst twelve all come from Tech. Notably, though, these 30 stocks that have all fallen more than 12% since 9/2 are still up an average of 5.6% YTD. Were it not for the horrid YTD performance of the Energy stocks that made the list, the average YTD gain would be even higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Typical Early September Weakness Recovers Mid-Month Sells Off Month-End

As of yesterday’s close the market was down more than the historical average performance in September. DJIA was down nearly -3.3%, S&P 500 was down -4.8%, NASDAQ was off 7.9%, Russell 1000 was down -5.2% and Russell 2000 lost 3.7%. Today’s rally looks like the beginning of a textbook mid-month recovery rally However, the second half of September has historically been weaker than the first half. The week after options expiration week can be treacherous with S&P 500 logging 23 weekly losses in 30 years since 1990. End-of-quarter portfolio restructuring, and window dressing can amplify the impacts of any negative headlines.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending September 11th, 2020

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 9.13.20

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $FDX
  • $ADBE
  • $CBRL
  • $ASPU
  • $LEN
  • $DAVA
  • $BRC
  • $CMD
  • $ISR
  • $APOG
  • $ICMB
  • $HMY
  • $VNCE
  • $CSBR
  • $EARS
  • $AFIB
  • $OSH
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 9.14.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 9.14.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 9.15.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 9.15.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 9.16.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 9.16.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Thursday 9.17.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 9.17.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 9.18.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 9.18.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

FedEx Corp. $232.79

FedEx Corp. (FDX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, September 15, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.54 per share on revenue of $17.46 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.78 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 16.72% with revenue increasing by 2.42%. Short interest has decreased by 15.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 46.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 54.3% above its 200 day moving average of $150.90. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 28, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,504 contracts of the $250.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 10.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Adobe Inc. $471.35

Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, September 15, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.41 per share on revenue of $3.15 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.47 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 76% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $2.40 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 12.62% with revenue increasing by 11.15%. Short interest has decreased by 14.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 15.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 25.2% above its 200 day moving average of $376.45. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 27, 2020 there was some notable buying of 18,006 contracts of the $455.00 put expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. $136.79

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Tuesday, September 15, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.55 per share on revenue of $483.68 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.49) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 28% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 120.37% with revenue decreasing by 38.55%. Short interest has decreased by 2.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 30.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.5% above its 200 day moving average of $121.64. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 27, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,012 contracts of the $190.00 call expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 10.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Aspen Group, Inc. $11.54

Aspen Group, Inc. (ASPU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Monday, September 14, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.04 per share on revenue of $14.26 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.03) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 49% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 63.64% with revenue increasing by 37.67%. Short interest has increased by 56.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 32.3% above its 200 day moving average of $8.72. The stock has averaged a 11.1% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Lennar Corp. $77.48

Lennar Corp. (LEN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:35 PM ET on Monday, September 14, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.51 per share on revenue of $5.33 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.67 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.03% with revenue decreasing by 9.00%. Short interest has decreased by 16.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 20.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 29.6% above its 200 day moving average of $59.78. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 8.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Endava $53.03

Endava (DAVA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:20 AM ET on Tuesday, September 15, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.19 per share on revenue of $107.96 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.22 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 33% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.18 to $0.20 per share on revenue of $105.00 million to $106.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 26.92% with revenue increasing by 9.61%. Short interest has increased by 56.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 11.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.7% above its 200 day moving average of $47.06. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 6.7% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Brady Corp. $45.34

Brady Corp. (BRC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September 16, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.55 per share on revenue of $260.00 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.56 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 31% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 19.12% with revenue decreasing by 11.95%. Short interest has decreased by 37.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.5% below its 200 day moving average of $49.01. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 5.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Cantel Medical Corp. $49.12

Cantel Medical Corp. (CMD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, September 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.08 per share on revenue of $232.80 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.09 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 39% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 87.30% with revenue decreasing by 2.79%. Short interest has decreased by 19.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 4.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.7% below its 200 day moving average of $51.02. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 17.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

IsoRay Inc $0.63

IsoRay Inc (ISR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, September 17, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.01 per share on revenue of $2.77 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 25% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 50.00% with revenue increasing by 43.97%. Short interest has decreased by 26.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 33.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.7% below its 200 day moving average of $0.68. Overall earnings estimates have been unchanged since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 8.2% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Apogee Enterprises, Inc. $19.49

Apogee Enterprises, Inc. (APOG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Thursday, September 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.34 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 19% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 52.78% with revenue increasing by 179.79%. Short interest has decreased by 4.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 7.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.9% below its 200 day moving average of $25.63. Option traders are pricing in a 10.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead smallstreetbets.
submitted by bigbear0083 to smallstreetbets [link] [comments]


2020.09.12 14:00 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning September 14th, 2020

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on wallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning September 14th, 2020.

Investors will look to the Fed to soothe the market next week, but that may be a tall order - (Source)

Markets are looking to the Federal Reserve to be a soothing force when it meets in the week ahead, but stocks could remain choppy if the central bank disappoints and as investors focus on the election and the economic recovery.
The Fed’s two-day meeting is expected to end Wednesday with minor tweaks to its statement and some clarity on how it plans to use forward guidance. The Fed also updates its economic and interest rate outlook, including forecasts for 2023 for the first time.
But Quincy Krosby, chief investment strategist at Prudential Financial, said the stock market could easily be disappointed because the Fed is unlikely to offer more clarity on monetary policy, such as plans for bond buying.
“The market is concerned the Fed is not going to give us explicit readings on their plans for monetary policy,″ she said. The Fed’s extraordinary policies have been an important factor behind the stock market’s 50% surge from the March 23 low, and it’s also seen as a major factor limiting the depth of the market’s sell-off.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, said the Fed is not likely to tweak much and it continues to buy $80 billion a month in Treasurys. “I don’t think they’ll do anything to the markets either way,” he said.
Stocks were volatile in the past week, falling hard, rallying, falling and rallying again. That left the S&P 500 with a weekly decline of about 2.5%, its worst week since June. The harder hit Nasdaq was down about 4.1% for the week, its worst weekly decline since March. The quadruple expiration of options and futures at the end of the coming week could add to the volatility.
Bank of America strategists said the bond market is watching the Fed for any balance sheet adjustments and the changes to its forward guidance, which includes the Fed’s recent tweak in its inflation policy. The Fed changed its policy of focusing on a target inflation rate to an average rate, meaning it may not tighten policy if inflation overshoots its 2% target.
“We see risk the rates market is underwhelmed by the guidance provided by the Fed, which would support higher back-end rates and a steeper curve,” the Bank of America strategists noted. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield slid in the past week, touching 0.67% Friday, and it could move higher, meaning bonds may sell-off, if the Fed does not clarify policy around its bond buying program.
Krosby said the stock market is hoping for a dovish Fed. “The market needs that now because fiscal policy is going nowhere,” she said.
BTIG strategist Julian Emanuel said the market could focus on the fact that Congress failed to make headway on fiscal stimulus, if the economic data begins to disappoint.
Retail sales for August are expected Wednesday morning, as the Fed meets. They are expected to rise by 1%, and that should be an important look at whether the lack of enhanced unemployment benefits, which expired July 31, impacted consumer spending. Among other things, Republicans and Democrats could not agree how to replace the $600 weekly payment to the unemployed.
“Depending on the polls and the economic data, the probability of stimulus rises and falls,” said Emanuel, head of equity and derivatives strategy.
“Our view is that next week is just going to be lots of back and forth with the potential for a further extension of the range for the downside, if the political narrative gets more inflamed,” said Emanuel. Emanuel expects the market to remain choppy and fall further into the month of October, as investors worry about the uncertainty around the presidential election.
The Fed’s meeting this week is its last before the election, and analysts expect Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to sound reassuring that the Fed will do whatever it takes to support the economy. Powell holds a briefing after the meeting Wednesday, and he is expected to also be asked about the potential for higher inflation. The Fed has said it is more concerned about disinflation, but recent inflation data has been hotter than expected, though still well below 2%.
“There is a tug of war between those who say buy chips now because inflation is moving higher, versus those why are saying deflationary forces are still weaving their way into the economy,” said Krosby.
Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, said he expects the Fed to sound reassuring but it’s not likely to discuss a target for bond purchases or the yield curve controls some investors were hoping for. Yield curve control would mean the Fed would try to manage interest rates by targeting its purchases of specific Treasurys. For instance, it may focus on trying to keep longer duration yields lower, and buy the 10-year.
Chandler also noted the Fed’s $7 trillion balance sheet has recently declined by about $100 billion from its peak, and its bond purchases are falling behind the European Central Bank.
“My sense is the Fed is going to keep saying it’s not worried about inflation. Its bigger worry is downside risks. They’ll repeat their call for fiscal stimulus which after this week seems less likely,” he said.
Chandler said the stock market could remain choppy in the coming week, but he does not expect a sharp selloff. The dollar could decline, if the Fed sounds dovish, and that is a positive for stocks.
“I don’t think a 10% pullback [in Nasdaq] has caused enough pain to have people capitulate. This is just an ordinary correction, and we’re going to make new highs,” he said.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!)

Election Charts You Need To See: Part 1

First off, our thoughts go out to everyone who was impacted by the tragic events of September 11, 2001—19 years ago today. It is a day to reflect and remember those who were lost.
One of the top requests we’ve had here at LPL Research is for more charts on the election. Over the next week, we will share some of our favorite charts on this very important subject.
Here’s how the S&P 500 Index performs under various presidents and congressional makeups. The best scenario has historically been a Democratic president and Republican Congress, while a Republican president and Democratic Congress has been the weakest.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Building on this, a split Congress historically has been one of the best scenarios for investors.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The best scenario under a Republican president is a split Congress, a potential positive for 2020 that has played out after the massive reversal in the stock market since March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Looking at the four-year presidential cycle shows that stocks haven’t been down during a year the president was up for a re-election since FDR in the 1940s, another bullish tailwind for 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another look at this, as stocks historically have done much better when there isn’t a lame duck president.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Active Managers Do an About Face

The National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) has an index which tracks the exposure of its members to US equity markets. Each week, members are asked to provide a number that represents their exposure to markets. A reading of -200 means they are leveraged short, -100 indicates fully short, 0 is neutral, 100% is fully invested, and 200% indicates leveraged long. Two weeks ago, in our Bespoke Report, we highlighted the fact that the exposure index had moved to one of the highest levels in its 15-year history. Now, just two weeks later, these same active managers have reigned in their exposure considerably as this week's reading dropped from just under 100 to 53.1.
This week's drop was the second-largest one week decline in the index's history and just the 10th time that the index lost more than a third (33 points) in a single week. The most recent occurrence was back in early March in the middle of the Covid crash, and every other prior period where the index saw a similar drop, the S&P 500 was also down every time by an average of 2.3%. Therefore, it's not much of a surprise to see the big drop this week given the big declines in the market. But what about going forward? Do big drops in the NAAIM Index mean a bounce back for markets or further declines?
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The Most and Least Heavily Shorted Stocks in the Russell 1,000

Below is an updated look at the most heavily shorted stocks in the Russell 1,000. Each of these 30 stocks has at least 15% of its equity float sold short.
At the top of the list is Nordstrom (JWN) with 38.66% of its float sold short. With a YTD decline of 61.86%, the shorts have crushed it with JWN this year.
With its huge portfolio of office and retail real estate, Brookfield Property REIT(BPYU) has the second highest short interest in the Russell 1,000 at 33.7%. BPYU is down 35.7% YTD.
There are plenty of other well-known companies on the list of the most heavily shorted stocks. Examples include American Airlines (AAL), Virgin Galactic (SPCE), LendingTree (TREE), Wayfair (W), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), ADT, TripAdvisor (TRIP), Beyond Meat (BYND), and Kohl's (KSS).
One name that is no longer on the list of most shorted stocks is Tesla (TSLA). When we provided an update on short interest back in February (a pre-COVID world), Tesla (TSLA) had more than 17% of its float sold short, but that number is all the way down to 8.3% as of the most recent filing.
These 30 stocks with the highest short interest are down an average of 3.01% since last Wednesday (9/2) when the S&P 500 made its last closing high. That's actually a little bit better than the 3.55% average decline for the rest of the stocks in the Russell 1,000. And year-to-date, these 30 stocks are up an average of 0.60% versus an average gain of 0.81% for the rest of the index. That's not much of a difference!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below is a list of the 30 least shorted stocks in the Russell 1,000 as a percentage of equity float. None of these stocks have more than 0.71% of their float sold short, and they're mostly made up of more conservative names in the Health Care and Consumer Staples sectors.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) has the lowest short interest as a percentage of float in the Russell 1,000 at just 0.36%. Microsoft (MSFT) -- one of the key mega-cap Tech names -- has the second lowest short interest, followed by Merck (MRK), Eli Lilly (LLY), and Medtronic (MDT).
Somewhat surprisingly, Amazon (AMZN) is the sixth least shorted stock in the entire Russell 1,000. While AMZN is still thought of as a high-flying momentum name by many investors, its short interest levels tell a much different story, painting it as more of a non-cyclical stock like Pepsi (PEP), Procter & Gamble (PG), or Coca- Cola (KO).
While the 30 most heavily shorted stocks in the Russell 1,000 are up 0.60% YTD, the 30 least shorted stocks in the index are up much more at +8%. This group has MSFT, AMZN, HD, and AAPL to thank for that strong performance!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

5 Lessons Learned About Rising Rates

While the direction of the 10-year Treasury yield over the last cycle was decidedly lower, as shown in LPL’s Chart of the Day, there were still six extended periods where it rose at least 0.75%, and in two of those it rose almost 2%. Looking ahead, economic growth below potential, slack in the labor market, and an extremely supportive Federal Reserve (Fed) may limit rate pressure in the near term, but with interest rates already low and massive stimulus in place, we believe the overall direction is likely to be higher.
“Even in a falling rate period there are lessons from the last cycle about rising rates,” said LPL Financial Chief Investment Officer Burt White. “Among them: Careful when the Fed stops buying and sometimes the best defense is a good offense.”
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While every economic cycle is unique, the last cycle highlighted these key takeaways about periods of rising rates:
  • Careful when the Fed stops buying. The two drivers of rising rates last cycle were economic growth and Fed bond purchases, also known as quantitative easing (QE). The Fed buys bonds to keep rates down, but the start of Fed buying has actually been the time when rates rise—likely on expectations that the purchases would help strengthen the economy. These periods also often followed large rate declines either because markets anticipated the start of Fed buying or the economy was faltering. The takeaway: unless the economy is really taking off, any rising-rate period may pause for an extended period, or even reverse, when the Fed backs off bond purchases.
  • Sometime the best defense is a good offense. Lower-quality, more economically sensitive bond sectors actually performed well during periods of rising rates during the last cycle. Rate gains were largely driven by economic improvement rather than a large pick-up in inflation, and that’s typically a good environment for sectors like high-yield bonds and bank loans. The downside is that these are much riskier bond sectors and don’t provide the potential diversification benefits of higher-quality bonds during periods of stock declines.
  • Don’t expect TIPS to provide much resilience because of their inflation adjustment. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are high-quality bonds that have provided a little extra insulation against rising rates compared to similarly dated Treasuries when inflation expectations increased. TIPS prices are adjusted for inflation, but even with the adjustment, they are still very sensitive to rates.
  • Investment-grade corporates can both hurt and help. If credit spreads narrow when rates are rising, investment-grade corporates can post some solid gains in a rising-rate environment, but if spreads are holding steady or even widening, they can be very sensitive to changes in Treasury yields, potentially (although not often) even more sensitive than Treasuries.
  • Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) have not provided as much insulation as corporates, but they also have had less downside. While MBS have certainly outperformed Treasuries during periods of rising rates, they have not performed as well as investment-grade corporates. But they also have come with less downside, losing only 1.4% in their worst performing period compared to a 4% loss during the worst period for corporates. With the Fed still providing strong stimulus and economic growth potentially poised to accelerate, we currently see an increased risk of rates moving higher. We are playing some offense with our equity exposure, which allows us to emphasize a focus on higher-quality bonds. Among bond sectors, we are emphasizing MBS and still prefer investment-grade corporates over Treasuries. History may not repeat, but if it rhymes, this positioning may help add resilience to a fixed income portfolio if rates extend their move off recent lows.
With the Fed still providing strong stimulus and economic growth potentially poised to accelerate, we currently see an increased risk of rates moving higher. We are playing some offense with our equity exposure, which allows us to emphasize a focus on higher-quality bonds. Among bond sectors, we are emphasizing MBS and still prefer investment-grade corporates over Treasuries. History may not repeat, but if it rhymes, this positioning may help add resilience to a fixed income portfolio if rates extend their move off recent lows.

Best and Worst Performing Stocks Since the 9/2 High

Since the S&P 500 and Nasdaq peaked on September 2nd, we've seen rotation out of the post-COVID winners and rotation into laggards in the value space. Below we take a look at the best and worst performing stocks in the Russell 1,000 since the 9/2 high for the S&P. For each stock, we also include its YTD total return and its percentage change from the 3/23 COVID Crash low through 9/2.
Capri Holdings (CPRI) is up more than any other stock in the Russell 1,000 since 9/2 with a gain of 17.43%. Even after the recent gains, however, Capri -- the holding company for brands like Michael Kors, Jimmy Choo, and Versace -- is still down 52.9% year-to-date.
Only four other stocks are up more than 10% since 9/2 -- Beyond Meat (BYND), PVH, Virtu Financial (VIRT), and Reinsurance Group (RGA). Interestingly, BYND and VIRT are also up big (~80%) year-to-date, while PVH and RGA are both down more than 35% year-to-date.
What stands out the most about the list of winners is that only one Technology stock made the cut -- Sabre (SABR). Most names come from the two consumer sectors including cruise-liners like Carnival (CCL), Royal Caribbean (RCL) and Norwegian Cruise (NCLH), Kohl's (KSS), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Six Flags (SIX), Foot Locker (FL), and Ralph Lauren (RL). Both UBER and LYFT also made the cut with gains of 6% since 9/2. The 30 biggest winners since 9/2 are still down an average of 20% year-to-date, while the rest of the stocks in the Russell 1,000 are up an average of 1.46% YTD.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While only one Technology stock made the list of biggest winners since 9/2, the sector accounts for two-thirds of the 30 biggest losers over the same time frame. As shown below, since 9/2, the six worst performing stocks in the Russell 1,000 and ten of the worst twelve all come from Tech. Notably, though, these 30 stocks that have all fallen more than 12% since 9/2 are still up an average of 5.6% YTD. Were it not for the horrid YTD performance of the Energy stocks that made the list, the average YTD gain would be even higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Typical Early September Weakness Recovers Mid-Month Sells Off Month-End

As of yesterday’s close the market was down more than the historical average performance in September. DJIA was down nearly -3.3%, S&P 500 was down -4.8%, NASDAQ was off 7.9%, Russell 1000 was down -5.2% and Russell 2000 lost 3.7%. Today’s rally looks like the beginning of a textbook mid-month recovery rally However, the second half of September has historically been weaker than the first half. The week after options expiration week can be treacherous with S&P 500 logging 23 weekly losses in 30 years since 1990. End-of-quarter portfolio restructuring, and window dressing can amplify the impacts of any negative headlines.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 9.14.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 9.14.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 9.15.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 9.15.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 9.16.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 9.16.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Thursday 9.17.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 9.17.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 9.18.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 9.18.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

FedEx Corp. $232.79

FedEx Corp. (FDX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, September 15, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.54 per share on revenue of $17.46 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.78 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 16.72% with revenue increasing by 2.42%. Short interest has decreased by 15.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 46.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 54.3% above its 200 day moving average of $150.90. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 28, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,504 contracts of the $250.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 10.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Adobe Inc. $471.35

Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, September 15, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.41 per share on revenue of $3.15 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.47 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 76% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $2.40 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 12.62% with revenue increasing by 11.15%. Short interest has decreased by 14.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 15.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 25.2% above its 200 day moving average of $376.45. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 27, 2020 there was some notable buying of 18,006 contracts of the $455.00 put expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. $136.79

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Tuesday, September 15, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.55 per share on revenue of $483.68 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.49) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 28% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 120.37% with revenue decreasing by 38.55%. Short interest has decreased by 2.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 30.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.5% above its 200 day moving average of $121.64. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 27, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,012 contracts of the $190.00 call expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 10.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Aspen Group, Inc. $11.54

Aspen Group, Inc. (ASPU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Monday, September 14, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.04 per share on revenue of $14.26 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.03) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 49% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 63.64% with revenue increasing by 37.67%. Short interest has increased by 56.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 32.3% above its 200 day moving average of $8.72. The stock has averaged a 11.1% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Lennar Corp. $77.48

Lennar Corp. (LEN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:35 PM ET on Monday, September 14, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.51 per share on revenue of $5.33 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.67 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.03% with revenue decreasing by 9.00%. Short interest has decreased by 16.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 20.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 29.6% above its 200 day moving average of $59.78. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 8.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Endava $53.03

Endava (DAVA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:20 AM ET on Tuesday, September 15, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.19 per share on revenue of $107.96 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.22 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 33% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.18 to $0.20 per share on revenue of $105.00 million to $106.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 26.92% with revenue increasing by 9.61%. Short interest has increased by 56.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 11.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.7% above its 200 day moving average of $47.06. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 6.7% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Brady Corp. $45.34

Brady Corp. (BRC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September 16, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.55 per share on revenue of $260.00 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.56 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 31% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 19.12% with revenue decreasing by 11.95%. Short interest has decreased by 37.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.5% below its 200 day moving average of $49.01. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 5.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Cantel Medical Corp. $49.12

Cantel Medical Corp. (CMD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, September 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.08 per share on revenue of $232.80 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.09 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 39% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 87.30% with revenue decreasing by 2.79%. Short interest has decreased by 19.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 4.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.7% below its 200 day moving average of $51.02. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 17.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

IsoRay Inc $0.63

IsoRay Inc (ISR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, September 17, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.01 per share on revenue of $2.77 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 25% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 50.00% with revenue increasing by 43.97%. Short interest has decreased by 26.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 33.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.7% below its 200 day moving average of $0.68. Overall earnings estimates have been unchanged since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 8.2% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Apogee Enterprises, Inc. $19.49

Apogee Enterprises, Inc. (APOG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Thursday, September 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.34 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 19% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 52.78% with revenue increasing by 179.79%. Short interest has decreased by 4.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 7.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.9% below its 200 day moving average of $25.63. Option traders are pricing in a 10.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead wallstreetbets.
submitted by bigbear0083 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]


2020.09.12 13:58 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning September 14th, 2020

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning September 14th, 2020.

Investors will look to the Fed to soothe the market next week, but that may be a tall order - (Source)

Markets are looking to the Federal Reserve to be a soothing force when it meets in the week ahead, but stocks could remain choppy if the central bank disappoints and as investors focus on the election and the economic recovery.
The Fed’s two-day meeting is expected to end Wednesday with minor tweaks to its statement and some clarity on how it plans to use forward guidance. The Fed also updates its economic and interest rate outlook, including forecasts for 2023 for the first time.
But Quincy Krosby, chief investment strategist at Prudential Financial, said the stock market could easily be disappointed because the Fed is unlikely to offer more clarity on monetary policy, such as plans for bond buying.
“The market is concerned the Fed is not going to give us explicit readings on their plans for monetary policy,″ she said. The Fed’s extraordinary policies have been an important factor behind the stock market’s 50% surge from the March 23 low, and it’s also seen as a major factor limiting the depth of the market’s sell-off.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, said the Fed is not likely to tweak much and it continues to buy $80 billion a month in Treasurys. “I don’t think they’ll do anything to the markets either way,” he said.
Stocks were volatile in the past week, falling hard, rallying, falling and rallying again. That left the S&P 500 with a weekly decline of about 2.5%, its worst week since June. The harder hit Nasdaq was down about 4.1% for the week, its worst weekly decline since March. The quadruple expiration of options and futures at the end of the coming week could add to the volatility.
Bank of America strategists said the bond market is watching the Fed for any balance sheet adjustments and the changes to its forward guidance, which includes the Fed’s recent tweak in its inflation policy. The Fed changed its policy of focusing on a target inflation rate to an average rate, meaning it may not tighten policy if inflation overshoots its 2% target.
“We see risk the rates market is underwhelmed by the guidance provided by the Fed, which would support higher back-end rates and a steeper curve,” the Bank of America strategists noted. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield slid in the past week, touching 0.67% Friday, and it could move higher, meaning bonds may sell-off, if the Fed does not clarify policy around its bond buying program.
Krosby said the stock market is hoping for a dovish Fed. “The market needs that now because fiscal policy is going nowhere,” she said.
BTIG strategist Julian Emanuel said the market could focus on the fact that Congress failed to make headway on fiscal stimulus, if the economic data begins to disappoint.
Retail sales for August are expected Wednesday morning, as the Fed meets. They are expected to rise by 1%, and that should be an important look at whether the lack of enhanced unemployment benefits, which expired July 31, impacted consumer spending. Among other things, Republicans and Democrats could not agree how to replace the $600 weekly payment to the unemployed.
“Depending on the polls and the economic data, the probability of stimulus rises and falls,” said Emanuel, head of equity and derivatives strategy.
“Our view is that next week is just going to be lots of back and forth with the potential for a further extension of the range for the downside, if the political narrative gets more inflamed,” said Emanuel. Emanuel expects the market to remain choppy and fall further into the month of October, as investors worry about the uncertainty around the presidential election.
The Fed’s meeting this week is its last before the election, and analysts expect Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to sound reassuring that the Fed will do whatever it takes to support the economy. Powell holds a briefing after the meeting Wednesday, and he is expected to also be asked about the potential for higher inflation. The Fed has said it is more concerned about disinflation, but recent inflation data has been hotter than expected, though still well below 2%.
“There is a tug of war between those who say buy chips now because inflation is moving higher, versus those why are saying deflationary forces are still weaving their way into the economy,” said Krosby.
Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, said he expects the Fed to sound reassuring but it’s not likely to discuss a target for bond purchases or the yield curve controls some investors were hoping for. Yield curve control would mean the Fed would try to manage interest rates by targeting its purchases of specific Treasurys. For instance, it may focus on trying to keep longer duration yields lower, and buy the 10-year.
Chandler also noted the Fed’s $7 trillion balance sheet has recently declined by about $100 billion from its peak, and its bond purchases are falling behind the European Central Bank.
“My sense is the Fed is going to keep saying it’s not worried about inflation. Its bigger worry is downside risks. They’ll repeat their call for fiscal stimulus which after this week seems less likely,” he said.
Chandler said the stock market could remain choppy in the coming week, but he does not expect a sharp selloff. The dollar could decline, if the Fed sounds dovish, and that is a positive for stocks.
“I don’t think a 10% pullback [in Nasdaq] has caused enough pain to have people capitulate. This is just an ordinary correction, and we’re going to make new highs,” he said.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!)

Election Charts You Need To See: Part 1

First off, our thoughts go out to everyone who was impacted by the tragic events of September 11, 2001—19 years ago today. It is a day to reflect and remember those who were lost.
One of the top requests we’ve had here at LPL Research is for more charts on the election. Over the next week, we will share some of our favorite charts on this very important subject.
Here’s how the S&P 500 Index performs under various presidents and congressional makeups. The best scenario has historically been a Democratic president and Republican Congress, while a Republican president and Democratic Congress has been the weakest.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Building on this, a split Congress historically has been one of the best scenarios for investors.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The best scenario under a Republican president is a split Congress, a potential positive for 2020 that has played out after the massive reversal in the stock market since March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Looking at the four-year presidential cycle shows that stocks haven’t been down during a year the president was up for a re-election since FDR in the 1940s, another bullish tailwind for 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another look at this, as stocks historically have done much better when there isn’t a lame duck president.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Active Managers Do an About Face

The National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) has an index which tracks the exposure of its members to US equity markets. Each week, members are asked to provide a number that represents their exposure to markets. A reading of -200 means they are leveraged short, -100 indicates fully short, 0 is neutral, 100% is fully invested, and 200% indicates leveraged long. Two weeks ago, in our Bespoke Report, we highlighted the fact that the exposure index had moved to one of the highest levels in its 15-year history. Now, just two weeks later, these same active managers have reigned in their exposure considerably as this week's reading dropped from just under 100 to 53.1.
This week's drop was the second-largest one week decline in the index's history and just the 10th time that the index lost more than a third (33 points) in a single week. The most recent occurrence was back in early March in the middle of the Covid crash, and every other prior period where the index saw a similar drop, the S&P 500 was also down every time by an average of 2.3%. Therefore, it's not much of a surprise to see the big drop this week given the big declines in the market. But what about going forward? Do big drops in the NAAIM Index mean a bounce back for markets or further declines?
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The Most and Least Heavily Shorted Stocks in the Russell 1,000

Below is an updated look at the most heavily shorted stocks in the Russell 1,000. Each of these 30 stocks has at least 15% of its equity float sold short.
At the top of the list is Nordstrom (JWN) with 38.66% of its float sold short. With a YTD decline of 61.86%, the shorts have crushed it with JWN this year.
With its huge portfolio of office and retail real estate, Brookfield Property REIT(BPYU) has the second highest short interest in the Russell 1,000 at 33.7%. BPYU is down 35.7% YTD.
There are plenty of other well-known companies on the list of the most heavily shorted stocks. Examples include American Airlines (AAL), Virgin Galactic (SPCE), LendingTree (TREE), Wayfair (W), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), ADT, TripAdvisor (TRIP), Beyond Meat (BYND), and Kohl's (KSS).
One name that is no longer on the list of most shorted stocks is Tesla (TSLA). When we provided an update on short interest back in February (a pre-COVID world), Tesla (TSLA) had more than 17% of its float sold short, but that number is all the way down to 8.3% as of the most recent filing.
These 30 stocks with the highest short interest are down an average of 3.01% since last Wednesday (9/2) when the S&P 500 made its last closing high. That's actually a little bit better than the 3.55% average decline for the rest of the stocks in the Russell 1,000. And year-to-date, these 30 stocks are up an average of 0.60% versus an average gain of 0.81% for the rest of the index. That's not much of a difference!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below is a list of the 30 least shorted stocks in the Russell 1,000 as a percentage of equity float. None of these stocks have more than 0.71% of their float sold short, and they're mostly made up of more conservative names in the Health Care and Consumer Staples sectors.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) has the lowest short interest as a percentage of float in the Russell 1,000 at just 0.36%. Microsoft (MSFT) -- one of the key mega-cap Tech names -- has the second lowest short interest, followed by Merck (MRK), Eli Lilly (LLY), and Medtronic (MDT).
Somewhat surprisingly, Amazon (AMZN) is the sixth least shorted stock in the entire Russell 1,000. While AMZN is still thought of as a high-flying momentum name by many investors, its short interest levels tell a much different story, painting it as more of a non-cyclical stock like Pepsi (PEP), Procter & Gamble (PG), or Coca- Cola (KO).
While the 30 most heavily shorted stocks in the Russell 1,000 are up 0.60% YTD, the 30 least shorted stocks in the index are up much more at +8%. This group has MSFT, AMZN, HD, and AAPL to thank for that strong performance!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

5 Lessons Learned About Rising Rates

While the direction of the 10-year Treasury yield over the last cycle was decidedly lower, as shown in LPL’s Chart of the Day, there were still six extended periods where it rose at least 0.75%, and in two of those it rose almost 2%. Looking ahead, economic growth below potential, slack in the labor market, and an extremely supportive Federal Reserve (Fed) may limit rate pressure in the near term, but with interest rates already low and massive stimulus in place, we believe the overall direction is likely to be higher.
“Even in a falling rate period there are lessons from the last cycle about rising rates,” said LPL Financial Chief Investment Officer Burt White. “Among them: Careful when the Fed stops buying and sometimes the best defense is a good offense.”
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While every economic cycle is unique, the last cycle highlighted these key takeaways about periods of rising rates:
  • Careful when the Fed stops buying. The two drivers of rising rates last cycle were economic growth and Fed bond purchases, also known as quantitative easing (QE). The Fed buys bonds to keep rates down, but the start of Fed buying has actually been the time when rates rise—likely on expectations that the purchases would help strengthen the economy. These periods also often followed large rate declines either because markets anticipated the start of Fed buying or the economy was faltering. The takeaway: unless the economy is really taking off, any rising-rate period may pause for an extended period, or even reverse, when the Fed backs off bond purchases.
  • Sometime the best defense is a good offense. Lower-quality, more economically sensitive bond sectors actually performed well during periods of rising rates during the last cycle. Rate gains were largely driven by economic improvement rather than a large pick-up in inflation, and that’s typically a good environment for sectors like high-yield bonds and bank loans. The downside is that these are much riskier bond sectors and don’t provide the potential diversification benefits of higher-quality bonds during periods of stock declines.
  • Don’t expect TIPS to provide much resilience because of their inflation adjustment. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are high-quality bonds that have provided a little extra insulation against rising rates compared to similarly dated Treasuries when inflation expectations increased. TIPS prices are adjusted for inflation, but even with the adjustment, they are still very sensitive to rates.
  • Investment-grade corporates can both hurt and help. If credit spreads narrow when rates are rising, investment-grade corporates can post some solid gains in a rising-rate environment, but if spreads are holding steady or even widening, they can be very sensitive to changes in Treasury yields, potentially (although not often) even more sensitive than Treasuries.
  • Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) have not provided as much insulation as corporates, but they also have had less downside. While MBS have certainly outperformed Treasuries during periods of rising rates, they have not performed as well as investment-grade corporates. But they also have come with less downside, losing only 1.4% in their worst performing period compared to a 4% loss during the worst period for corporates. With the Fed still providing strong stimulus and economic growth potentially poised to accelerate, we currently see an increased risk of rates moving higher. We are playing some offense with our equity exposure, which allows us to emphasize a focus on higher-quality bonds. Among bond sectors, we are emphasizing MBS and still prefer investment-grade corporates over Treasuries. History may not repeat, but if it rhymes, this positioning may help add resilience to a fixed income portfolio if rates extend their move off recent lows.
With the Fed still providing strong stimulus and economic growth potentially poised to accelerate, we currently see an increased risk of rates moving higher. We are playing some offense with our equity exposure, which allows us to emphasize a focus on higher-quality bonds. Among bond sectors, we are emphasizing MBS and still prefer investment-grade corporates over Treasuries. History may not repeat, but if it rhymes, this positioning may help add resilience to a fixed income portfolio if rates extend their move off recent lows.

Best and Worst Performing Stocks Since the 9/2 High

Since the S&P 500 and Nasdaq peaked on September 2nd, we've seen rotation out of the post-COVID winners and rotation into laggards in the value space. Below we take a look at the best and worst performing stocks in the Russell 1,000 since the 9/2 high for the S&P. For each stock, we also include its YTD total return and its percentage change from the 3/23 COVID Crash low through 9/2.
Capri Holdings (CPRI) is up more than any other stock in the Russell 1,000 since 9/2 with a gain of 17.43%. Even after the recent gains, however, Capri -- the holding company for brands like Michael Kors, Jimmy Choo, and Versace -- is still down 52.9% year-to-date.
Only four other stocks are up more than 10% since 9/2 -- Beyond Meat (BYND), PVH, Virtu Financial (VIRT), and Reinsurance Group (RGA). Interestingly, BYND and VIRT are also up big (~80%) year-to-date, while PVH and RGA are both down more than 35% year-to-date.
What stands out the most about the list of winners is that only one Technology stock made the cut -- Sabre (SABR). Most names come from the two consumer sectors including cruise-liners like Carnival (CCL), Royal Caribbean (RCL) and Norwegian Cruise (NCLH), Kohl's (KSS), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Six Flags (SIX), Foot Locker (FL), and Ralph Lauren (RL). Both UBER and LYFT also made the cut with gains of 6% since 9/2. The 30 biggest winners since 9/2 are still down an average of 20% year-to-date, while the rest of the stocks in the Russell 1,000 are up an average of 1.46% YTD.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While only one Technology stock made the list of biggest winners since 9/2, the sector accounts for two-thirds of the 30 biggest losers over the same time frame. As shown below, since 9/2, the six worst performing stocks in the Russell 1,000 and ten of the worst twelve all come from Tech. Notably, though, these 30 stocks that have all fallen more than 12% since 9/2 are still up an average of 5.6% YTD. Were it not for the horrid YTD performance of the Energy stocks that made the list, the average YTD gain would be even higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Typical Early September Weakness Recovers Mid-Month Sells Off Month-End

As of yesterday’s close the market was down more than the historical average performance in September. DJIA was down nearly -3.3%, S&P 500 was down -4.8%, NASDAQ was off 7.9%, Russell 1000 was down -5.2% and Russell 2000 lost 3.7%. Today’s rally looks like the beginning of a textbook mid-month recovery rally However, the second half of September has historically been weaker than the first half. The week after options expiration week can be treacherous with S&P 500 logging 23 weekly losses in 30 years since 1990. End-of-quarter portfolio restructuring, and window dressing can amplify the impacts of any negative headlines.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 9.14.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 9.14.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 9.15.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 9.15.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 9.16.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 9.16.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Thursday 9.17.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 9.17.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 9.18.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 9.18.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

FedEx Corp. $232.79

FedEx Corp. (FDX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, September 15, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.54 per share on revenue of $17.46 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.78 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 16.72% with revenue increasing by 2.42%. Short interest has decreased by 15.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 46.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 54.3% above its 200 day moving average of $150.90. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 28, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,504 contracts of the $250.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 10.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Adobe Inc. $471.35

Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, September 15, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.41 per share on revenue of $3.15 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.47 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 76% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $2.40 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 12.62% with revenue increasing by 11.15%. Short interest has decreased by 14.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 15.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 25.2% above its 200 day moving average of $376.45. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 27, 2020 there was some notable buying of 18,006 contracts of the $455.00 put expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. $136.79

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Tuesday, September 15, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.55 per share on revenue of $483.68 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.49) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 28% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 120.37% with revenue decreasing by 38.55%. Short interest has decreased by 2.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 30.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.5% above its 200 day moving average of $121.64. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 27, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,012 contracts of the $190.00 call expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 10.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Aspen Group, Inc. $11.54

Aspen Group, Inc. (ASPU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Monday, September 14, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.04 per share on revenue of $14.26 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.03) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 49% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 63.64% with revenue increasing by 37.67%. Short interest has increased by 56.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 32.3% above its 200 day moving average of $8.72. The stock has averaged a 11.1% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Lennar Corp. $77.48

Lennar Corp. (LEN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:35 PM ET on Monday, September 14, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.51 per share on revenue of $5.33 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.67 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.03% with revenue decreasing by 9.00%. Short interest has decreased by 16.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 20.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 29.6% above its 200 day moving average of $59.78. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 8.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Endava $53.03

Endava (DAVA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:20 AM ET on Tuesday, September 15, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.19 per share on revenue of $107.96 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.22 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 33% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.18 to $0.20 per share on revenue of $105.00 million to $106.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 26.92% with revenue increasing by 9.61%. Short interest has increased by 56.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 11.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.7% above its 200 day moving average of $47.06. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 6.7% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Brady Corp. $45.34

Brady Corp. (BRC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September 16, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.55 per share on revenue of $260.00 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.56 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 31% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 19.12% with revenue decreasing by 11.95%. Short interest has decreased by 37.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.5% below its 200 day moving average of $49.01. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 5.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Cantel Medical Corp. $49.12

Cantel Medical Corp. (CMD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, September 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.08 per share on revenue of $232.80 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.09 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 39% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 87.30% with revenue decreasing by 2.79%. Short interest has decreased by 19.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 4.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.7% below its 200 day moving average of $51.02. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 17.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

IsoRay Inc $0.63

IsoRay Inc (ISR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, September 17, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.01 per share on revenue of $2.77 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 25% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 50.00% with revenue increasing by 43.97%. Short interest has decreased by 26.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 33.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.7% below its 200 day moving average of $0.68. Overall earnings estimates have been unchanged since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 8.2% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Apogee Enterprises, Inc. $19.49

Apogee Enterprises, Inc. (APOG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Thursday, September 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.34 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 19% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 52.78% with revenue increasing by 179.79%. Short interest has decreased by 4.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 7.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.9% below its 200 day moving average of $25.63. Option traders are pricing in a 10.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead stocks.
submitted by bigbear0083 to stocks [link] [comments]


2020.09.12 03:20 reina_nova Don't Forget the Search Bar Leads to a Goldmine

Hey Queens! Just wanted to give you all (especially the newbies) a quick reminder to use the search bar to read older FDS posts that might be relevant and helpful to you. There is so much knowledge and advice that FDS has collected over time -- we should make use of it. Here is a list of some of my favorite FDS posts of all time:
Hope you enjoy! If any of you have any older FDS posts you'd like to share in the comments, please do so!
submitted by reina_nova to FemaleDatingStrategy [link] [comments]


2020.09.11 22:58 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning September 14th, 2020

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarket. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning September 14th, 2020.

Investors will look to the Fed to soothe the market next week, but that may be a tall order - (Source)

Markets are looking to the Federal Reserve to be a soothing force when it meets in the week ahead, but stocks could remain choppy if the central bank disappoints and as investors focus on the election and the economic recovery.
The Fed’s two-day meeting is expected to end Wednesday with minor tweaks to its statement and some clarity on how it plans to use forward guidance. The Fed also updates its economic and interest rate outlook, including forecasts for 2023 for the first time.
But Quincy Krosby, chief investment strategist at Prudential Financial, said the stock market could easily be disappointed because the Fed is unlikely to offer more clarity on monetary policy, such as plans for bond buying.
“The market is concerned the Fed is not going to give us explicit readings on their plans for monetary policy,″ she said. The Fed’s extraordinary policies have been an important factor behind the stock market’s 50% surge from the March 23 low, and it’s also seen as a major factor limiting the depth of the market’s sell-off.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, said the Fed is not likely to tweak much and it continues to buy $80 billion a month in Treasurys. “I don’t think they’ll do anything to the markets either way,” he said.
Stocks were volatile in the past week, falling hard, rallying, falling and rallying again. That left the S&P 500 with a weekly decline of about 2.5%, its worst week since June. The harder hit Nasdaq was down about 4.1% for the week, its worst weekly decline since March. The quadruple expiration of options and futures at the end of the coming week could add to the volatility.
Bank of America strategists said the bond market is watching the Fed for any balance sheet adjustments and the changes to its forward guidance, which includes the Fed’s recent tweak in its inflation policy. The Fed changed its policy of focusing on a target inflation rate to an average rate, meaning it may not tighten policy if inflation overshoots its 2% target.
“We see risk the rates market is underwhelmed by the guidance provided by the Fed, which would support higher back-end rates and a steeper curve,” the Bank of America strategists noted. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield slid in the past week, touching 0.67% Friday, and it could move higher, meaning bonds may sell-off, if the Fed does not clarify policy around its bond buying program.
Krosby said the stock market is hoping for a dovish Fed. “The market needs that now because fiscal policy is going nowhere,” she said.
BTIG strategist Julian Emanuel said the market could focus on the fact that Congress failed to make headway on fiscal stimulus, if the economic data begins to disappoint.
Retail sales for August are expected Wednesday morning, as the Fed meets. They are expected to rise by 1%, and that should be an important look at whether the lack of enhanced unemployment benefits, which expired July 31, impacted consumer spending. Among other things, Republicans and Democrats could not agree how to replace the $600 weekly payment to the unemployed.
“Depending on the polls and the economic data, the probability of stimulus rises and falls,” said Emanuel, head of equity and derivatives strategy.
“Our view is that next week is just going to be lots of back and forth with the potential for a further extension of the range for the downside, if the political narrative gets more inflamed,” said Emanuel. Emanuel expects the market to remain choppy and fall further into the month of October, as investors worry about the uncertainty around the presidential election.
The Fed’s meeting this week is its last before the election, and analysts expect Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to sound reassuring that the Fed will do whatever it takes to support the economy. Powell holds a briefing after the meeting Wednesday, and he is expected to also be asked about the potential for higher inflation. The Fed has said it is more concerned about disinflation, but recent inflation data has been hotter than expected, though still well below 2%.
“There is a tug of war between those who say buy chips now because inflation is moving higher, versus those why are saying deflationary forces are still weaving their way into the economy,” said Krosby.
Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, said he expects the Fed to sound reassuring but it’s not likely to discuss a target for bond purchases or the yield curve controls some investors were hoping for. Yield curve control would mean the Fed would try to manage interest rates by targeting its purchases of specific Treasurys. For instance, it may focus on trying to keep longer duration yields lower, and buy the 10-year.
Chandler also noted the Fed’s $7 trillion balance sheet has recently declined by about $100 billion from its peak, and its bond purchases are falling behind the European Central Bank.
“My sense is the Fed is going to keep saying it’s not worried about inflation. Its bigger worry is downside risks. They’ll repeat their call for fiscal stimulus which after this week seems less likely,” he said.
Chandler said the stock market could remain choppy in the coming week, but he does not expect a sharp selloff. The dollar could decline, if the Fed sounds dovish, and that is a positive for stocks.
“I don’t think a 10% pullback [in Nasdaq] has caused enough pain to have people capitulate. This is just an ordinary correction, and we’re going to make new highs,” he said.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!)

Election Charts You Need To See: Part 1

First off, our thoughts go out to everyone who was impacted by the tragic events of September 11, 2001—19 years ago today. It is a day to reflect and remember those who were lost.
One of the top requests we’ve had here at LPL Research is for more charts on the election. Over the next week, we will share some of our favorite charts on this very important subject.
Here’s how the S&P 500 Index performs under various presidents and congressional makeups. The best scenario has historically been a Democratic president and Republican Congress, while a Republican president and Democratic Congress has been the weakest.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Building on this, a split Congress historically has been one of the best scenarios for investors.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The best scenario under a Republican president is a split Congress, a potential positive for 2020 that has played out after the massive reversal in the stock market since March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Looking at the four-year presidential cycle shows that stocks haven’t been down during a year the president was up for a re-election since FDR in the 1940s, another bullish tailwind for 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another look at this, as stocks historically have done much better when there isn’t a lame duck president.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Active Managers Do an About Face

The National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) has an index which tracks the exposure of its members to US equity markets. Each week, members are asked to provide a number that represents their exposure to markets. A reading of -200 means they are leveraged short, -100 indicates fully short, 0 is neutral, 100% is fully invested, and 200% indicates leveraged long. Two weeks ago, in our Bespoke Report, we highlighted the fact that the exposure index had moved to one of the highest levels in its 15-year history. Now, just two weeks later, these same active managers have reigned in their exposure considerably as this week's reading dropped from just under 100 to 53.1.
This week's drop was the second-largest one week decline in the index's history and just the 10th time that the index lost more than a third (33 points) in a single week. The most recent occurrence was back in early March in the middle of the Covid crash, and every other prior period where the index saw a similar drop, the S&P 500 was also down every time by an average of 2.3%. Therefore, it's not much of a surprise to see the big drop this week given the big declines in the market. But what about going forward? Do big drops in the NAAIM Index mean a bounce back for markets or further declines?
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The Most and Least Heavily Shorted Stocks in the Russell 1,000

Below is an updated look at the most heavily shorted stocks in the Russell 1,000. Each of these 30 stocks has at least 15% of its equity float sold short.
At the top of the list is Nordstrom (JWN) with 38.66% of its float sold short. With a YTD decline of 61.86%, the shorts have crushed it with JWN this year.
With its huge portfolio of office and retail real estate, Brookfield Property REIT(BPYU) has the second highest short interest in the Russell 1,000 at 33.7%. BPYU is down 35.7% YTD.
There are plenty of other well-known companies on the list of the most heavily shorted stocks. Examples include American Airlines (AAL), Virgin Galactic (SPCE), LendingTree (TREE), Wayfair (W), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), ADT, TripAdvisor (TRIP), Beyond Meat (BYND), and Kohl's (KSS).
One name that is no longer on the list of most shorted stocks is Tesla (TSLA). When we provided an update on short interest back in February (a pre-COVID world), Tesla (TSLA) had more than 17% of its float sold short, but that number is all the way down to 8.3% as of the most recent filing.
These 30 stocks with the highest short interest are down an average of 3.01% since last Wednesday (9/2) when the S&P 500 made its last closing high. That's actually a little bit better than the 3.55% average decline for the rest of the stocks in the Russell 1,000. And year-to-date, these 30 stocks are up an average of 0.60% versus an average gain of 0.81% for the rest of the index. That's not much of a difference!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below is a list of the 30 least shorted stocks in the Russell 1,000 as a percentage of equity float. None of these stocks have more than 0.71% of their float sold short, and they're mostly made up of more conservative names in the Health Care and Consumer Staples sectors.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) has the lowest short interest as a percentage of float in the Russell 1,000 at just 0.36%. Microsoft (MSFT) -- one of the key mega-cap Tech names -- has the second lowest short interest, followed by Merck (MRK), Eli Lilly (LLY), and Medtronic (MDT).
Somewhat surprisingly, Amazon (AMZN) is the sixth least shorted stock in the entire Russell 1,000. While AMZN is still thought of as a high-flying momentum name by many investors, its short interest levels tell a much different story, painting it as more of a non-cyclical stock like Pepsi (PEP), Procter & Gamble (PG), or Coca- Cola (KO).
While the 30 most heavily shorted stocks in the Russell 1,000 are up 0.60% YTD, the 30 least shorted stocks in the index are up much more at +8%. This group has MSFT, AMZN, HD, and AAPL to thank for that strong performance!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

5 Lessons Learned About Rising Rates

While the direction of the 10-year Treasury yield over the last cycle was decidedly lower, as shown in LPL’s Chart of the Day, there were still six extended periods where it rose at least 0.75%, and in two of those it rose almost 2%. Looking ahead, economic growth below potential, slack in the labor market, and an extremely supportive Federal Reserve (Fed) may limit rate pressure in the near term, but with interest rates already low and massive stimulus in place, we believe the overall direction is likely to be higher.
“Even in a falling rate period there are lessons from the last cycle about rising rates,” said LPL Financial Chief Investment Officer Burt White. “Among them: Careful when the Fed stops buying and sometimes the best defense is a good offense.”
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While every economic cycle is unique, the last cycle highlighted these key takeaways about periods of rising rates:
  • Careful when the Fed stops buying. The two drivers of rising rates last cycle were economic growth and Fed bond purchases, also known as quantitative easing (QE). The Fed buys bonds to keep rates down, but the start of Fed buying has actually been the time when rates rise—likely on expectations that the purchases would help strengthen the economy. These periods also often followed large rate declines either because markets anticipated the start of Fed buying or the economy was faltering. The takeaway: unless the economy is really taking off, any rising-rate period may pause for an extended period, or even reverse, when the Fed backs off bond purchases.
  • Sometime the best defense is a good offense. Lower-quality, more economically sensitive bond sectors actually performed well during periods of rising rates during the last cycle. Rate gains were largely driven by economic improvement rather than a large pick-up in inflation, and that’s typically a good environment for sectors like high-yield bonds and bank loans. The downside is that these are much riskier bond sectors and don’t provide the potential diversification benefits of higher-quality bonds during periods of stock declines.
  • Don’t expect TIPS to provide much resilience because of their inflation adjustment. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are high-quality bonds that have provided a little extra insulation against rising rates compared to similarly dated Treasuries when inflation expectations increased. TIPS prices are adjusted for inflation, but even with the adjustment, they are still very sensitive to rates.
  • Investment-grade corporates can both hurt and help. If credit spreads narrow when rates are rising, investment-grade corporates can post some solid gains in a rising-rate environment, but if spreads are holding steady or even widening, they can be very sensitive to changes in Treasury yields, potentially (although not often) even more sensitive than Treasuries.
  • Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) have not provided as much insulation as corporates, but they also have had less downside. While MBS have certainly outperformed Treasuries during periods of rising rates, they have not performed as well as investment-grade corporates. But they also have come with less downside, losing only 1.4% in their worst performing period compared to a 4% loss during the worst period for corporates. With the Fed still providing strong stimulus and economic growth potentially poised to accelerate, we currently see an increased risk of rates moving higher. We are playing some offense with our equity exposure, which allows us to emphasize a focus on higher-quality bonds. Among bond sectors, we are emphasizing MBS and still prefer investment-grade corporates over Treasuries. History may not repeat, but if it rhymes, this positioning may help add resilience to a fixed income portfolio if rates extend their move off recent lows.
With the Fed still providing strong stimulus and economic growth potentially poised to accelerate, we currently see an increased risk of rates moving higher. We are playing some offense with our equity exposure, which allows us to emphasize a focus on higher-quality bonds. Among bond sectors, we are emphasizing MBS and still prefer investment-grade corporates over Treasuries. History may not repeat, but if it rhymes, this positioning may help add resilience to a fixed income portfolio if rates extend their move off recent lows.

Best and Worst Performing Stocks Since the 9/2 High

Since the S&P 500 and Nasdaq peaked on September 2nd, we've seen rotation out of the post-COVID winners and rotation into laggards in the value space. Below we take a look at the best and worst performing stocks in the Russell 1,000 since the 9/2 high for the S&P. For each stock, we also include its YTD total return and its percentage change from the 3/23 COVID Crash low through 9/2.
Capri Holdings (CPRI) is up more than any other stock in the Russell 1,000 since 9/2 with a gain of 17.43%. Even after the recent gains, however, Capri -- the holding company for brands like Michael Kors, Jimmy Choo, and Versace -- is still down 52.9% year-to-date.
Only four other stocks are up more than 10% since 9/2 -- Beyond Meat (BYND), PVH, Virtu Financial (VIRT), and Reinsurance Group (RGA). Interestingly, BYND and VIRT are also up big (~80%) year-to-date, while PVH and RGA are both down more than 35% year-to-date.
What stands out the most about the list of winners is that only one Technology stock made the cut -- Sabre (SABR). Most names come from the two consumer sectors including cruise-liners like Carnival (CCL), Royal Caribbean (RCL) and Norwegian Cruise (NCLH), Kohl's (KSS), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Six Flags (SIX), Foot Locker (FL), and Ralph Lauren (RL). Both UBER and LYFT also made the cut with gains of 6% since 9/2. The 30 biggest winners since 9/2 are still down an average of 20% year-to-date, while the rest of the stocks in the Russell 1,000 are up an average of 1.46% YTD.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While only one Technology stock made the list of biggest winners since 9/2, the sector accounts for two-thirds of the 30 biggest losers over the same time frame. As shown below, since 9/2, the six worst performing stocks in the Russell 1,000 and ten of the worst twelve all come from Tech. Notably, though, these 30 stocks that have all fallen more than 12% since 9/2 are still up an average of 5.6% YTD. Were it not for the horrid YTD performance of the Energy stocks that made the list, the average YTD gain would be even higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Typical Early September Weakness Recovers Mid-Month Sells Off Month-End

As of yesterday’s close the market was down more than the historical average performance in September. DJIA was down nearly -3.3%, S&P 500 was down -4.8%, NASDAQ was off 7.9%, Russell 1000 was down -5.2% and Russell 2000 lost 3.7%. Today’s rally looks like the beginning of a textbook mid-month recovery rally However, the second half of September has historically been weaker than the first half. The week after options expiration week can be treacherous with S&P 500 logging 23 weekly losses in 30 years since 1990. End-of-quarter portfolio restructuring, and window dressing can amplify the impacts of any negative headlines.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending September 11th, 2020

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 9.13.20

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $FDX
  • $ADBE
  • $CBRL
  • $ASPU
  • $LEN
  • $DAVA
  • $BRC
  • $CMD
  • $ISR
  • $APOG
  • $ICMB
  • $HMY
  • $VNCE
  • $CSBR
  • $EARS
  • $AFIB
  • $OSH
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 9.14.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 9.14.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 9.15.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 9.15.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 9.16.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 9.16.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Thursday 9.17.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 9.17.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 9.18.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 9.18.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

FedEx Corp. $232.79

FedEx Corp. (FDX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, September 15, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.54 per share on revenue of $17.46 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.78 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 16.72% with revenue increasing by 2.42%. Short interest has decreased by 15.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 46.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 54.3% above its 200 day moving average of $150.90. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 28, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,504 contracts of the $250.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 10.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Adobe Inc. $471.35

Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, September 15, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.41 per share on revenue of $3.15 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.47 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 76% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $2.40 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 12.62% with revenue increasing by 11.15%. Short interest has decreased by 14.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 15.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 25.2% above its 200 day moving average of $376.45. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 27, 2020 there was some notable buying of 18,006 contracts of the $455.00 put expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. $136.79

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Tuesday, September 15, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.55 per share on revenue of $483.68 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.49) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 28% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 120.37% with revenue decreasing by 38.55%. Short interest has decreased by 2.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 30.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.5% above its 200 day moving average of $121.64. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 27, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,012 contracts of the $190.00 call expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 10.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Aspen Group, Inc. $11.54

Aspen Group, Inc. (ASPU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Monday, September 14, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.04 per share on revenue of $14.26 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.03) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 49% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 63.64% with revenue increasing by 37.67%. Short interest has increased by 56.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 32.3% above its 200 day moving average of $8.72. The stock has averaged a 11.1% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Lennar Corp. $77.48

Lennar Corp. (LEN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:35 PM ET on Monday, September 14, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.51 per share on revenue of $5.33 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.67 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.03% with revenue decreasing by 9.00%. Short interest has decreased by 16.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 20.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 29.6% above its 200 day moving average of $59.78. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 8.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Endava $53.03

Endava (DAVA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:20 AM ET on Tuesday, September 15, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.19 per share on revenue of $107.96 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.22 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 33% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.18 to $0.20 per share on revenue of $105.00 million to $106.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 26.92% with revenue increasing by 9.61%. Short interest has increased by 56.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 11.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.7% above its 200 day moving average of $47.06. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 6.7% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Brady Corp. $45.34

Brady Corp. (BRC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September 16, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.55 per share on revenue of $260.00 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.56 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 31% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 19.12% with revenue decreasing by 11.95%. Short interest has decreased by 37.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.5% below its 200 day moving average of $49.01. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 5.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Cantel Medical Corp. $49.12

Cantel Medical Corp. (CMD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, September 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.08 per share on revenue of $232.80 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.09 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 39% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 87.30% with revenue decreasing by 2.79%. Short interest has decreased by 19.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 4.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.7% below its 200 day moving average of $51.02. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 17.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.9% move in recent quarters.

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IsoRay Inc $0.63

IsoRay Inc (ISR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, September 17, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.01 per share on revenue of $2.77 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 25% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 50.00% with revenue increasing by 43.97%. Short interest has decreased by 26.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 33.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.7% below its 200 day moving average of $0.68. Overall earnings estimates have been unchanged since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 8.2% move on earnings in recent quarters.

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Apogee Enterprises, Inc. $19.49

Apogee Enterprises, Inc. (APOG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Thursday, September 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.34 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 19% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 52.78% with revenue increasing by 179.79%. Short interest has decreased by 4.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 7.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.9% below its 200 day moving average of $25.63. Option traders are pricing in a 10.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.4% move in recent quarters.

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DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarket.
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarket [link] [comments]


2020.09.11 20:56 Kush360 Amazon New Grad SDE Final Interview

Hi guys,
It’s that crazy time where we get final interview calls from big companies and you know you have to nail it. Few users have now started getting final virtual interview calls from AmazonUniversity(including me & I have not scheduled a date yet).
I was hoping we can make a spreadsheet or a mega thread for new grads to share their experience or to get tips about what to expect.
As this is my first time giving this interview and I’d appreciate all the help I can get from this community about what to expect.
Thank you in advance! Happy coding:)
submitted by Kush360 to csMajors [link] [comments]


2020.09.10 15:02 Kilztride [MAIN] Vehicular Mega Raffle- 554 spots at $5

Escrow for Dalic12345
Date/Time: September 10st, 9am
Item Name: Rough Terrain (42082), London Bus (10258), 1989 Batmobile (76139), Bugatti (42083), Apollo 11 Lunar Lander (10266), DC Minifigures (71026), Porsche 911 RSR (42096), Volkswagen T1 Camper (10220), Ferrari Tributo (76895), Ferrari Tributo (76895), Corner Garage (10264), Mini cooper bundle (75894)
Lego Price: 42082($300) + 10258($130) + 76139($250) + 42083($350) + 10266($100) + 71026($300) + 42096($150) + 10220($120) + 76895($20) + 76895($20) + 10264($200) + 75894($50) + 12% tax ($239)
Shipping: $511
Raffle total: $2,770, 554 spots @ $5 each
Price justification? All from lego.com except for 10258 from Zavvi.com
Call spots? Yes
Spot limit per person? No
Duration of spot limit? N/A
Location(Country): Canada
Will ship international? Yes, shipping cost reflects items being shipped from Vancouver, Canada to the most eastern part of Canada (St. John, Newfoundland). Winner outside of Canada will be responsible for any shipping difference over $511. Any shipping overages will be sent to sub fund.
Timestamp/pics: https://imgur.com/a/c5znS1y
Description: Who doesn’t love a MEGA raffle?
Payment required w/in 30 minutes of raffle filling.

PayPal Info: https://www.paypal.me

Tip BoyAndHisBlob
Number of vacant slots: 341
Number of unpaid users: 16
Number of unpaid slots: 121
This slot list is created and updated by The EDC Raffle Tool by BoyAndHisBlob.
1 cravejosh PAID
2
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4 TragicHaggis
5 HorizonXP
6
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8 Bosskz
9 Bosskz
10 Bosskz
11 Clayspider
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13 RandomAbyss
14 Fritterbob PAID
15 Ergrak PAID
16 turkeyjerky2
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18 jaychan2015
19 turkeyjerky2
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21 backwash13 PAID
22 MiltThatherton PAID
23 mulligansteak PAID
24 HorizonXP
25 Bosskz
26 Xterminator5
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28 VR38-R35
29 Fritterbob PAID
30 batsuit_nipples PAID
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34 Clayspider
35 Teekay111222 PAID
36 backwash13 PAID
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38 Clayspider
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42 turkeyjerky2
43 asager43
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47 ggtriguy PAID
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52 dillng PAID
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55 r1955 PAID
56 TragicHaggis
57 Teekay111222 PAID
58 Fritterbob PAID
59 HorizonXP
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61 Ergrak PAID
62 NotSoSasquatchy
63 NotSoSasquatchy
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67 damsteegt PAID
68 batsuit_nipples PAID
69 cravejosh PAID
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74 NotSoSasquatchy
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81 NotSoSasquatchy
82 HorizonXP
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84 Ergrak PAID
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86 Slats89 PAID
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88 turkeyjerky2
89 Slats89 PAID
90 PhantomMGC
91 N8tron99 PAID
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97 Ergrak PAID
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103 Clayspider
104 VR38-R35
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108 turkeyjerky2
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113 NotSoSasquatchy
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118 jaults PAID
119 damsteegt PAID
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122 beermoneymike PAID
123 kraftymonkey
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125 copperXmine PAID
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127 VR38-R35
128 PhantomMGC
129 turkeyjerky2
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133 VR38-R35
134 backwash13 PAID
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136 Clayspider
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138 Bosskz
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141 beermoneymike PAID
142 Teekay111222 PAID
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144 turkeyjerky2
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146 NotSoSasquatchy
147 azwrona
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153 Scrotaur PAID
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159 txjed PAID
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162 turkeyjerky2
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164 HorizonXP
165 darthrabbit78 PAID
166 PhantomMGC
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168 NotSoSasquatchy
169 hatboot17
170 Ergrak PAID
171 TheProfessxr PAID
172 Ergrak PAID
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175 NotSoSasquatchy
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177 Ergrak PAID
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185 TragicHaggis
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189 Slats89 PAID
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191 batsuit_nipples PAID
192 Teekay111222 PAID
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206 TheLoveLost_ PAID
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208 turkeyjerky2
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210 NotSoSasquatchy
211 turkeyjerky2
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215 VR38-R35
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217 Clayspider
218 TragicHaggis
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221 krebspsycho PAID
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227 TragicHaggis
228 sancoli PAID
229 NotSoSasquatchy
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236 kwo330 PAID
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241 damsteegt PAID
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243 TragicHaggis
244 VR38-R35
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246 TragicHaggis
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248 darthrabbit78 PAID
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253 hatboot17
254 Clayspider
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259 copperXmine PAID
260 Fritterbob PAID
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263 hatboot17
264 kwo330 PAID
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267 darthrabbit78 PAID
268 TragicHaggis
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270 turkeyjerky2
271 PhantomMGC
272 hatboot17
273 Ergrak PAID
274 Ergrak PAID
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278 TheLoveLost_ PAID
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281 NotSoSasquatchy
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289 Slats89 PAID
290 kraftymonkey
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293 NotSoSasquatchy
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305 NotSoSasquatchy
306 HorizonXP
307 backwash13 PAID
308 NotSoSasquatchy
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310 VR38-R35
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313 backwash13 PAID
314 Ergrak PAID
315 TragicHaggis
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317 VR38-R35
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329 mauvebilions PAID
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335 hatboot17
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340 TheProfessxr PAID
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347 turkeyjerky2
348 NotSoSasquatchy
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359 Clayspider
360 HorizonXP
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367 Scrotaur PAID
368
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370 Scrotaur PAID
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372 darthrabbit78 PAID
373 NotSoSasquatchy
374
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376 damsteegt PAID
377 beermoneymike PAID
378 VR38-R35
379 kwo330 PAID
380 backwash13 PAID
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389 Slats89 PAID
390 kwo330 PAID
391
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398 Clayspider
399 Clayspider
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403 Scrotaur PAID
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405 backwash13 PAID
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410 TragicHaggis
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413 Teekay111222 PAID
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415 batsuit_nipples PAID
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417 Fritterbob PAID
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421 backwash13 PAID
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425 HorizonXP
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427 bma4843 PAID
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431 Scrotaur PAID
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433 kraftymonkey
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436 unknownuser2485 PAID
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439 kraftymonkey
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442 Ergrak PAID
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445 HorizonXP
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454 VR38-R35
455 VR38-R35
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472 VR38-R35
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481 Teekay111222 PAID
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489 Slats89 PAID
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492 VR38-R35
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494 VR38-R35
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502 bma4843 PAID
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504 VR38-R35
505 mauvebilions PAID
506 NotSoSasquatchy
507 darthrabbit78 PAID
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513 Ergrak PAID
514 turkeyjerky2
515 Clayspider
516 Clayspider
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520 Ergrak PAID
521 HorizonXP
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525 turkeyjerky2
526 HorizonXP
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529 HorizonXP
530 Clayspider
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534 turkeyjerky2
535 jaults
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537 TragicHaggis
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541 Clayspider
542 damsteegt PAID
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549 Clayspider
550 jaults
551 jaults PAID
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554 VR38-R35

submitted by Kilztride to lego_raffles [link] [comments]


2020.09.08 18:29 GoldenSandslash15 Examining the REAL Competitive Pokémon Metagame

What is the competitive Pokémon battling game like? Oh, sure, you can talk about all the crazy stuff you can do with your perfectly legal Pokémon, but you’re overlooking a very important thing: illegal Pokémon. Here’s what I’m gonna examine: the competitive Pokémon battling scene where EVERYTHING is legal.
“Oh, so you mean, like, allowing the uber legendaries and what-not?”
Oh, please. You’re thinking too small. No. I’m taking this in a completely different direction: glitches. If it can be done in the game using official hardware and software, it is legal. Period. You can use your glitchy Pokémon, your glitched-up movesets, whatever. As long as it was obtained on official hardware and software, it is fair game. (Using an external cheating device is still disallowed.)
This is arguably the “real” Pokémon metagame, because this is what is included in the games. Despite that, knowledge of this metagame is largely undocumented, so I guess I have to document it myself.
One quick note, we will NOT be discussing the metagames of Let’s Go! Pikachu and Eevee, nor the metagames of Generation 8. Why? Well, two reasons. One, they are on current hardware (Nintendo Switch), and thus are still being updated. Glitches can be removed on a moment’s notice by Nintendo and Game Freak. Two, I’m just not knowledgeable enough about those games in general. So we will just ignore them. We’ll start at Ultra Sun and Ultra Moon, and work our way backwards, until we reach Red and Blue.
Why are we going backwards? Because the further back you go, the crazier it gets. Generation 1 is full of SO MUCH untapped glitch potential that if I were to start with this, it would make everything else seem like a letdown by comparison. So instead I’m gonna build up to it. This is the order that we will examine each metagame and how it changes if you allow glitches:
Generation 7 (Sun/Moon/Ultra Sun/Ultra Moon)
Generation 6 (X/Y/Omega Ruby/Alpha Sapphire)
Generation 5 (Black/White/Black 2/White 2)
Generation 4 (Diamond/Pearl/Platinum/HeartGold/SoulSilver)
Generation 3 (Ruby/Sapphire/FireRed/LeafGreen/Emerald)
Generation 2 (Gold/SilveCrystal)
Generation 1 (Red/Green/Blue/Yellow)
Let’s go!
So, we start by looking at Generation 7. Unfortunately, it’s a huge letdown. There’s not much in terms of glitches that is found in Generation 7 that radically changes the metagame. So I guess just keep playing the way you were playing. Yeah, pretty boring.
Though having said that, there are quite a few glitches found in previous games that give you access to otherwise-illegal Pokémon. By transferring them to Generation 7, you can impact the metagame a fair bit, but we’ll examine these glitches as we come to the games that actually have them.
So now we move on to Generation 6. What do we have here? Well, Florges gets a huge spike in usage if you allow glitches.
Name: Florges
Types: Fairy
Stats: 78 / 65 / 68 / 112 / 154 / 75
Abilities: Flower Veil / Symbiosis
Now I know what you’re thinking. What’s so special about this thing? I mean, it’s okay. But it’s not great. Its Defense is terrible. And that’s a shame because it would otherwise make an excellent Pokémon. Fairy is a good type defensively, it has stellar Special Defense, the ability to heal with Synthesis and Wish, and high enough Special Attack to pull off a STAB Moonblast effectively. But that Defense stat means it can’t last long enough to do so if your opponent has any physical attacker whatsoever. So why use it?
Simple. Look at its abilities.
They’re useless. Flower Veil makes your team’s Grass-types immune to status ailments and having their stats lowered. Symbiosis makes it so that if a Pokémon on your side uses a consumable item, Florges will give its item to that Pokémon instead. Both of these do nothing unless you’re in a Double Battle, and even then, they’re nothing to write home about.
Well... Florges is the ONLY evolution line with Symbiosis in this generation. And we are about to break this ability wide open. Let me tell you about the Symbiosis glitch. To perform this glitch, you’ll need an Eject Button. When a Pokémon holding an Eject Button is hit by a damaging move, then that Pokémon switches out automatically and the Eject Button is consumed. Due to a glitch, in Generation 6 only, if you have a Pokémon with Symbiosis in play when this happens, the item will transfer after the Eject Button Pokémon switches out but before the replacement switches in.
Okay, so? That’s just graphical weirdness.
Ah, but it isn’t. Because, you see, by doing it this way, the Pokémon will indeed appear to have no item, but then when it switches back in, it gets the item properly. In truth, though, it had the item all along, and then it gets the item when it switches in anyways, essentially giving it TWO held items. And furthermore, if the item in question was a Leftovers, the way it works actually causes it to double again, giving you FOUR of them. So, if you use a Leftovers in this way, you are healing 25% of your HP every turn. And if you have a Pokémon with Protect, you can alternate usage of Protect in order to basically get a free 50% heal each turn.
And even without Leftovers, you can still do some broken stuff with this. Choice Band, Choice Specs, Choice Scarf, and Assault Vest all provide massive stat boosts, at the cost of limiting what moves you are allowed to use. Imagine what would happen if you had two of them. Yeah, the stat boost is further multiplied, and the downside is irrelevant, because you were already prevented from using those moves by the first of the items anyways.
It turns out that in Gen 6, if everything is legal, Florges reigns over the metagame.
Now, hold on. That seems a bit extreme, right? I mean, sure, this is absolutely broken if you can pull it off, but that’s an extreme “if”, right? For one thing, you’d have to use a Florges on your team. And then you’d need an Eject Button. And you’d need the appropriate items. And... it just seems hard to pull off.
Indeed it is. So perhaps this glitch doesn’t QUITE impact the metagame as much as it perhaps could have under better circumstances. But worry not, we’ve got a long way to go. We’re just getting started.
Let’s move on to Generation 5.
Here, we need to discuss the move Sky Drop, a move so broken that Nintendo flat-out banned it in official tournaments in this generation, just because of its glitch potential. So what does Sky Drop do? It’s a physical-based Flying-type move that causes the user to lift the target into the air. While in the air, they are mostly immune to being attacked (with exceptions for a few moves: Gust, Thunder, Twister, Sky Uppercut, Hurricane, and Smack Down). On the following turn, the user crashes the target into the ground, damaging it (60 base power). That’s it.
So... what’s wrong here? Well, it has to do with the move Gravity. If Gravity is used while two Pokémon are in the air due to being mid-Sky Drop, then it will return the Pokémon to the ground. That part works fine. What doesn’t work fine is the Sky Drop Glitch. Here’s what happens. Though it appears that both Pokémon return to the field as normal, it’s actually only the attacker that does so. The target will remain in the air, unable to attack or switch out.
If this happens to your Pokémon, then congratulations. You’re now basically only using one of your Pokémon against your opponent’s two Pokémon. You’re at a MONUMENTAL disadvantage. Good luck overcoming that.
The Sky Drop+Gravity interaction was so broken that it caused Nintendo to ban the move Sky Drop from official tournaments. So I think it’s safe to say that with glitches allowed, this would have kept making an impact.
Let’s go on to Generation 4.
Up until now, the glitches that I’ve talked about have only been usable in Double Battles. This will change though. I know a lot of people play Single Battles, and so we need to be able to accommodate them too. Let’s go ahead and try to find a glitch that breaks Single Battles in Generation 4. First, though, we need to get some Pokémon to use. Since literally ANY Pokémon is allowed, we’ll be looking at some uber legendaries. Specifically, Giratina and Arceus.
Giratina is the first Pokémon that can change form depending on its held item.
Giratina-Origin is what you get when it’s holding a Griseous Orb. Giratina-Altered is what you get with any other held item. The Griseous Orb also boosts Giratina’s Dragon-type and Ghost-type moves by 1.2x.
Giratina-Origin has the stats 150 / 120 / 100 / 120 / 100 / 90 and the ability Levitate.
Giratina-Altered has the stats 150 / 100 / 120 / 100 / 120 / 90 and the ability Pressure.
So basically, Giratina-Origin is more offensive, and Giratina-Altered is more defensive. But remember what I said. This is the first Pokémon to change form depending on held item. Being the first, naturally, it would be poorly programmed. If you add or remove the Griseous Orb item while Giratina is in the PC Storage System, then its stats and ability will change to its new form, but... and here’s the kicker: its sprite will NOT change. So you can go into a link battle with a Giratina of one form masquerading as a Giratina of the other form. This can really throw your opponent for a loop.
Bottom-line: in the glitched metagame of Generation 4, you CANNOT ever trust a Giratina.
And as for Arceus... oh boy.
So, let’s talk about Tweaking. It’s a glitch that lets you access parts of the overworld that you don’t normally have access to. There’s nothing substantial about it, really. It just opens up areas of the game sooner than you’d normally have access to them. The one cool thing you can do with it is access the Darkrai and Shaymin that would normally only be able to be reached with event-only items, allowing you to repeat these events long after they’re over. So if you need a Darkrai or Shaymin, there you go.
But that doesn’t give us access to anything that we wouldn’t normally have anyways, right? I mean, yeah, it’s impossible to get a new Darkrai or Shaymin today, but you could have just gotten one a long time ago and then held onto it this long, right? Right.
But there’s another event Pokémon: Arceus. The Arceus found in the Hall of Origin can only be accessed with the event-only Azure Flute item, or with the Tweaking glitch. But here’s the thing. That Azure Flute item? Those events NEVER HAPPENED. They were planned, but Nintendo scrapped them for unknown reasons, instead just having events where they distributed Arceus to players directly. But with the Tweaking glitch, you can get this event that never happened.
So what? It just gives you an Arceus. That’s nothing that you couldn’t already have. Well... no.
See, the Arceus at the Hall of Origin is Level 80. And the Arceus that Nintendo distributed was Level 100. This is a huge difference. You see, at Level 100, a Pokémon is unable to level up. Without the ability to level up, it cannot gain EVs from defeating Pokémon in battle (well, in Generation 4. Later games give you EVs immediately even without a level up). As such, the only way to get EVs on an Arceus in Generation 4 is to use vitamins. But vitamins are limiting. You can only get EVs in multiples of 10, and no more than 100 in any given stat. This limited Arceus’s potential in Generation 4.
At least, when playing the games legitimately. Because the Level 80 Arceus does not care about such restrictions, and can run a full 510-EV set, with up to 252 EVs in any given stat. That’s huge for Arceus in particular, because Arceus’s base stats are 120 / 120 / 120 / 120 / 120 / 120. An even distribution means that Arceus can perform just about any role (compounded by the fact that Arceus can be any type). This means that a Ghost or Steel Arceus becomes more defensive and a Ground Arceus becomes more offensive, among other possibilities.
All right, so we got our Pokémon. Now it’s time to battle. This time, we’ll be taking a look at a glitch that can be used in any battle, not just Double Battles. So what’s the game-breaking glitch this time? The Acid Rain Glitch.
Everyone knows that Generation 5 is the generation that was all about the weather. Prior to this generation, permanent weather abilities were confined to Groudon and Kyogre, which are ubers. And after this generation, weather abilities only last five turns. Well... in the glitch metagame, the generation that truly is all about weather is Generation 4. And the weather that reigns is acid rain.
So what is acid rain? Well, suppose you have sun, sand, hail, Trick Room, or Gravity in effect. During this time, a Pokémon switches out (either yours or your opponent’s). But before the Pokémon leaves, it gets hit by a Pursuit. This triggers a glitch called “acid rain”. When this glitch occurs, we get some really weird weather.
First up, it will create fog. Fog exists as weather in the overworld and can be removed by Defog, though there is normally no way to create this status condition in battle. Then, after every turn, each Pokémon in play is damaged by its ability, similar to how Solar Power works in sunlight. Except it damages each Pokémon FOUR TIMES per turn: once per weather condition. Because acid rain is actually all of the weather conditions combined. So you’re essentially losing 30% of your health every single turn. That’s nuts. But wait, it gets better. Thunder and Blizzard will both have perfect accuracy in acid rain, meaning that if your team can reliably set this up, you get to use these very powerful moves reliably. Another fun thing is that if you’re about to lose the game, you can send in a Castform or Cherrim. If you do, these Pokémon will change forms infinitely, causing the battle to never progress and the game becomes endless, resulting in a draw instead. But we’ll assume that literally creating an unwinnable endless battle is something that is disallowed even in a glitched metagame, and ignore that.
So what’s the metagame like here? Chlorophyll and Swift Swim everywhere. Just like in later generations with teams revolving around weather, except this time you don’t have to choose a weather condition, you can just have all of them. (Sand Rush and Slush Rush didn’t exist in Generation 4.)
Ordinarily, having Jumpluff and Floatzel on the same team would be extremely detrimental, but if you can reliably create acid rain, then both can use their abilities to full effect. This causes the Generation 4 metagame to have some interesting teams that you wouldn’t otherwise see.
Now we come to Generation 3. And if you thought anything above was game-breaking, you ain’t seen nothing yet.
Let’s talk about a move called Mimic. What does this move do? Well, when a Pokémon uses Mimic, it will gain a copy of whatever move the opponent used (unless that move was Struggle) until the battle ends. However, there’s a glitch with this move. If a Pokémon uses Mimic in very early copies of Japanese versions of Diamond and Pearl, and copies Transform, and then uses Transform to get a whole new set of moves, and then it later faints in the battle, but then the player wins the battle after that, then the Pokémon gets to keep the moves in question. On its own, this is pretty broken. But it’s gonna get worse, because of the Rage glitch.
If a transformed Pokémon uses Rage until the “rage is building” message, and then that Pokémon wins the battle, then the transformed Pokémon gets to keep all of the moves used by the Pokémon with Rage. Thus, any Pokémon with Mimic gets to copy the movepool of ANY Pokémon that can legally learn the move Rage. Oh, and that includes Smeargle, which can learn every single move in the game. So yeah, any Pokémon with Mimic can now learn every move in the game.
This allows for any Pokémon that can use Mimic to basically use ANY move (except Struggle and Chatter). Their movepool is infinite, just like Smeargle. Well, almost. Unlike Smeargle, you would be limited only to moves that existed in Generation 4, with Diamond and Pearl. Though one of your moves could be Sketch, and then you could also permanently learn one move from a later game when you transfer it up.
So why is this in the Generation 3 section? Why not Generation 4 where this glitch ACTUALLY occurs? Well, we’re gonna talk about that. First of all, how many Pokémon can even learn Mimic? Does this ACTUALLY affect that many Pokémon?
Well, I didn’t say the Pokémon needed to learn Mimic in order to use the glitch. I only said that they needed to USE Mimic, whether they learned it or not. As such, any Pokémon that learns Copycat, Metronome, Transform, or Assist can also take advantage of this glitch, as those moves allow the user to use Mimic.
But still... how bad is it?
Well... here we are in Generation 3. Mimic is a Move Tutor move. And EVERY SINGLE POKÉMON IN THE GAME (except Caterpie/Metapod, Weedle/Kakuna, Magikarp, Ditto, Unown, Wobbuffet, Smeargle, Wurmple/Silcoon/Cascoon, Wynaut, and Beldum) can learn it via Move Tutor.
Yeah, so you can break open this all due to Generation 3. And what makes this so game-breaking is that it affects not only this generation, but ALL LATER GENERATIONS AS WELL, since you can transfer your Pokémon up. So long as your Pokémon exists in Generation 3, it gets access to all moves that exist in Generation 4, and one move from later generations too if it wants to.
Shedinja can use Entrainment to give Wonder Guard to any other Pokémon it wants, breaking Double Battles wide open. Pidgeot can Mega Evolve and gain the No Guard ability, making it never miss when it uses Sheer Cold, a OHKO move. Groudon, after undergoing a Primal Reversion, could use Thousand Arrows. That sounds fun. Mega Glalie can use Fake Out and Extreme Speed together, thus being better at revenge-killing than any other Pokémon, thanks to its Refrigerate ability! Sylveon doesn’t exist in Generation 3, but it can still take advantage of the glitch by learning the necessary moves as an Eevee and then evolving in a later game. How does a Sylveon with Geomancy sound?
And this is only the tip of the iceberg. This is the most game-breaking glitch in the modern era of Pokémon, as it completely destroys any semblance of balance in EVERY generation of the games. If you want to completely break open the glitched metagame, this is the way to do it.
So... okay. In order to have some semblance of normality around here, we need to go back further than this. We need to go back to Generation 2. Because there’s no way to connect to future games in Generation 2, we don’t need to worry about any shenanigans like that, right? Well... not so fast.
Generation 2 is where Smeargle first debuted. Of course, it being the beginning means that Game Freak was bound to mess it up. And mess it up they did. So to recap, Sketch is supposed to permanently copy whatever move gets used. Fair enough. Except, here’s the Sketch glitch of Generation 2: this applies whenever Sketch is used. Period. That means that if you use Transform, become a Smeargle, and then use Sketch, you get to keep your Sketched move after the battle.
Logically, this opens the floodgates to any Pokémon that can use Transform to have an infinite movepool, right? Well, not quite. See, Generation 2 lacks Double Battles, so you’ll be unable to use the moves on your own Pokémon, making it unreliable to set up, since you’d be limited to working with the CPU opponents, who may or may not have teams that can work with this. Such a shame.
Oh wait, there is a way around that: the Viridian City Trainer House. Here, you’ll fight a CPU opponent once per day, and their team will be the same team as the player who you last Mystery Gifted with. So all you need to do is set up a team on one cartridge, Mystery Gift with another cartridge, and then there you go. Now all Pokémon that can use Transform can learn any move in the game! How many Pokémon does this apply to?
Well... two.
Yeah, not too impressive, right? The only Pokémon that can learn Transform are Ditto and Mew. Still, this is something, right? If only it could be more though. Oh wait, it can! Because any Pokémon that can use Metronome has a chance of getting Transform via Metronome and can then take advantage of this glitch. So, how many Pokémon can learn Metronome in Generation 2? Sadly, your options are still limited. Clefairy/Clefable, Mew, and Togepi/Togetic are the only Pokémon that get this move by level up. If you’re willing to put in some effort into breeding them, then you can also pass it on to a Cleffa, Snubbull, or Chansey. And if you happen to have a really really really old event Pokémon, there was an event Smoochum that had Metronome. That’s it.
But wait, there’s more! Because we’re not limited to Generation 2 here. We can step back in time, and look at Generation 1. And in Generation 1, Metronome was a TM move available to a wide variety of Pokémon: Clefairy/Clefable, Mankey/Primeape, Poliwhirl/Poliwrath, Abra/Kadabra/Alakazam, Machop/Machoke/Machamp, Geodude/GraveleGolem, Gengar, Drowzee/Hypno, Hitmonlee, Hitmonchan, Chansey, Mr. Mime, Jynx, Electabuzz, Magmar, Snorlax, Mewtwo, and Mew.
Now that’s a sizable chunk of Pokémon that we can work with. Any of these Pokémon will have an infinite movepool in Generation 2. Alakazam and Mewtwo have base speeds of 120 and 130 respectively, nearly the fastest in the game. Alakazam ties with Dugtrio and loses to Mewtwo (and everything that Mewtwo ties/loses with). Mewtwo ties with Jolteon, Crobat, and Aerodactyl, and then loses to Electrode. That is it. Other than that, these are the fastest Pokémon in Generation 2. And now they can use Spore. Yeah. Good luck dealing with that. Snorlax has stats of 160 / 110 / 65 / 65 / 110 / 30, making it phenomenal in battle. Though it’s always been at a tremendous cost: that Speed stat of 30. A few other Pokémon have this same Speed (Slowbro, Slowking, Steelix, Sunflora, Sudowoodo, Magcargo, Parasect, Lickitung), but in terms of actually winning and not just tying? The only fully-evolved Pokémon that Snorlax can beat is a Shuckle. That’s really unfortunate. Well, now Snorlax can use Extreme Speed, so that low Speed isn’t even a problem for it! Oh, and while we’re at it, let’s teach Mew Spikes because why not?
The Pokémon that can take advantage of the Sketch glitch are insane, and the entire Generation 2 glitched metagame revolves around them. But wait, it gets better!
Generation 2 not only allows you to transfer your Pokémon forwards from Generation 1, but it also allows you to transfer BACKWARDS to Generation 1, something that has never been seen again since then. So now, all of these Pokémon that can learn any move in the game can not only break the Generation 2 metagame, but they’re also free to go back to Generation 1 and use their new toys to attempt to break that metagame too. I say “attempt” because, as you’ll see, the Generation 1 metagame is quite different.
So let’s talk about Generation 1. I’m sure you’re familiar with the Mew glitch, that allows you to encounter a Mew simply by flying away from a Trainer. But Mew is not the only Pokémon that can be obtained this way. The Pokémon that you encounter depends on the Special stat of the Pokémon that you last fought. So you can get anything you want, including glitch Pokémon. Suppose the Pokémon that you last fought had a Special stat of 192. How do you do that? Easy. You get a Pokémon with that stat, then encounter a wild Ditto, and let it transform.
If done correctly, the Mew glitch will now have you encounter the Pokémon called “4 4 Hy”. What’s so special about 4 4 Hy? Nothing. It’s as worthless as a Magikarp. But wait -- Magikarp isn’t worthless. It can evolve. And indeed, the same is true for 4 4 Hy. It evolves into Q ◣ at level 6. Q ◣ is unique in that it alone is able to perform the Pokémon Merge glitch.
What on earth is the Pokémon Merge glitch? I’m glad you asked. You need at least four Pokémon in your party in order to pull this off. One Pokémon that can be anything, the Q ◣ Pokémon, and the two Pokémon that you want to merge together. Put them in your party in this order. Then, go to Bill’s PC and deposit every single Pokémon into your PC, starting at the top of your party and working your way down, until you get to Q ◣. Deposit Q ◣ as well, and then ta-da! The two Pokémon below Q ◣ are now combined into one.
This isn’t a fusion like Kyurem in Generation 5 though. This is a lot stranger. The Pokémon on the bottom will be the only one left, but it will have the stats and moves of the Pokémon that was above it. For example, if the top Pokémon was a Starmie and the bottom was a Tauros, the resulting fusion will be a Tauros that has the stats and moves of a Starmie. Okay, that’s great for confusing the opponent about why my Tauros is using Bubblebeam, but what about actual uses for this? Like, at the end of the day, it’s still a Starmie, it just looks like a Tauros. Is there any benefit to fusion? Well, consider this scenario. Your playgroup disallows use of Mewtwo and Mew because those Pokémon are completely broken in Generation 1. No problem! You can just use a Tauros instead, except it’s really a Mewtwo in disguise! Go back in time and wipe the floor with all the kids on the playground at recess.
And even if Mewtwo and Mew were disallowed even during this setup, you can still have a lot of fun with the fact that your opponent never knows the identity of the Pokémon that you are using. You essentially get six Zoroark, except that the opponent can’t even look at your team to figure out what’s going on.
While we’re on the topic of glitch Pokémon, there are a total of 105 different glitch Pokémon programmed into Gen 1. 4 4 Hy and Q ◣ aren’t alone. Let’s take a look at these glitch Pokémon and how they perform in the Generation 1 metagame. Quick note before I begin: most of the glitch Pokémon aren’t that good, but there are a small handful that are, so those are the ones that I’m going to focus on. I just don’t want to give the impression that ALL glitch Pokémon are as overpowered as I’m making them seem.
So we start with .g, which is a Bug-type Pokémon. It has base 254 Special and base 121 Speed. I’m sorry... what!? That is insane. And it can learn both Thunderbolt and Blizzard. Between the two of those, no Pokémon in Generation 1 resists both, so congrats, you just got perfect type coverage with .g, the Pokémon with ludicrous stats. Oh, and this thing can learn Soft-Boiled, for free easy healing. WHAT THE HELL. Is there anything wrong with .g? Well... yeah. It is a bit of a glass cannon. It only has 14 base HP and only 12 base Defense. This thing can’t take a hit from any physical-based moves, nor can it deal any, since its base Attack is 0. Shame too, because it can learn Swords Dance, along with Hyper Beam, Tri Attack, and Submission. Even Explosion, the most powerful move in the game (which .g can learn), doesn’t even kill a Chansey at half-health unless you give .g an Attack increase first. Because of its low physical Defense, you do need to be careful with .g, but its high Speed and stupidly high Special are enough that it is still worth using.
.PkMn is our next glitch Pokémon of note. It’s a Normal-type. Its stats are all terrible, except for Speed. It has a Speed stat of base 178. But with bad stats, what can it do with that? Well, it learns Hypnosis. This combination of high Speed and Hypnosis make .PkMn the best sleep-inducer in the game, provided that Hypnosis hits. Unfortunately, .PkMn is too reliant on that to be counted on too much. Its other base stats are 37 HP, 0 Attack, 40 Defense, and 19 Special. That’s really not good. If it does manage to hit with Hypnosis, it can use Seismic Toss, which doesn’t rely on its Attack stat, or STAB Wrap, which will trap the opponent indefinitely (man Wrap was broken back in Generation 1). But again, all of that is reliant on the fact that the initial Hypnosis hits. And Hypnosis only has 60 accuracy. This makes .PkMn a high-risk high-reward Pokémon.
Next up, we have A ゥ G. This one is Ghost/Poison, just like Gengar. How are its stats? Well, unlike other glitch Pokémon, A ゥ G’s stats are pretty normal. In fact, they’re identical to Gengar’s, and Gengar was already a pretty good Pokémon. Okay, so it has the same typing and stats as Gengar. So I guess that means it’s just the same thing as Gengar, right? Wrong. A ゥ G has a VASTLY superior movepool to Gengar. First of all, it can learn Spore, and put the opponent to sleep with perfect accuracy. Secondly, it knows Recover, so it can heal itself freely. Third, it has the insane attacking moves of Psychic, Thunderbolt, Fire Blast, and Aurora Beam. Fourth, it can learn Growth to boost its already-high Special stat even higher (remember, base 130 Special!). As if that weren’t enough, it also learns Explosion, so it can provide a last-ditch effort to take something down with it. If you feel like rolling the dice, it can also use the glitch move TM09, which is the same as Explosion: a ton of damage but you faint after using it. It actually is stronger than Explosion, having 255 power, as opposed to Explosion’s 170. The downside is that TM09 only has 33% accuracy, as opposed to Explosion’s 100% accuracy, making it a bit of a gamble. Overall, A ゥ G is stupidly broken. Not only can it do so much stuff here, but also: any attempt to counter it is null and void because it will almost certainly put you to sleep before you can execute that plan.
And now we come to the last glitch Pokémon that I will analyze today, Xゥ- xゥ. This one is a Normal-type. Xゥ- xゥ has the highest base stat total out of any Pokémon that has ever existed in any generation of the games. 132 HP, 145 Attack, 140 Defense, 141 Special, and 128 Speed. That’s a base stat total of 686. And if we take into consideration that Special should count twice, once for Special Attack and once for Special Defense, then its base stat total is actually 827. By comparison, a Mega Rayquaza only has a base stat total of 780, which is the highest non-glitch Pokémon that we’ve seen to date. (If you want to bring up Eternamax Eternatus’s base stat total of 1125, fine, I will concede that this is higher, but I don’t count this because there’s no way for the player to legally obtain it for themselves, it’s just an NPC encounter.) So, tell me, what moves can Xゥ- xゥ use with those stats? Well, it can use Body Slam (and remember, it gets STAB on that), along with Wrap, Submission, Rock Slide, Thunderbolt, Waterfall, and Psychic. Unfortunately, all of these moves are offensive moves, and that’s probably Xゥ- xゥ’s biggest weakness: it has no form of HP recovery, so any Pokémon with HP recovery can stall it out. As such, given a choice, I think I’d rather have a Mewtwo or a Mew in a Generation 1 battle than a Xゥ- xゥ. But still, no reason you can’t use both.
But never mind all that! Because Generation 1 is FAR more broken than just a couple of glitch Pokémon. Let’s talk about 8F. 8F is a glitch item that can be used to perform arbitrary code execution. For the unfamiliar, this lets you pretty much reprogram the Generation 1 games to do LITERALLY WHATEVER YOU WANT. You can even delete the entire source code of the game and replace it with a source code for your own custom game if you want. Of course, programming within a Pokémon game is REALLY tedious and really hard to do. But it is still possible. There’s no limit to what you can do if you can perform arbitrary code execution. So, how does this affect the metagame? Well, you can basically just make your own Pokémon. It can have 255 as its base stat in every single stat. It can have whatever moves you want. It can be whatever type you want.
This destroys the very notion of the game itself. And that’s basically what the Generation 1 glitched metagame is: each player has six Pokémon, all maxed out on stats, with typing unknown to the other player, and able to perform any moves they want.
It’s... pretty dumb. And definitely unrecognizable as the game “Pokémon” that you know and love. But it is possible to do on official hardware and software. Meaning that this is the real Pokémon competitive metagame.
Even though almost everyone ignores it entirely.
I hope you enjoyed this look through Pokémon glitches. They can be quite fun to play around with, and the resulting metagames that you get from allowing these glitches are really quite unlike any “official” metagame.
And, of course, these are just the glitches that have been discovered thus far. Who knows what’s waiting right around the corner, waiting to be discovered next? Perhaps someday we’ll be able to break modern Pokémon games in the same manner as old ones.
submitted by GoldenSandslash15 to TruePokemon [link] [comments]


2020.09.07 13:55 directproductionsuk Showreels and Social Media Videos

Showreels and Social Media Videos


By Julian Dismore: TV Series Producer and Media Skills Trainer
People who come on my media skills workshops often ask whether they should do showreels of their work and add them to their CV. I’m also asked whether links to uni projects and social media videos should be put on CVs. The answer is yes – within reason and with realistic expectations!
The fact of the matter is that media professionals who are looking for runners and entry level candidates are generally very busy and under quite a lot of pressure to fill the vacancies quickly. It is extremely unlikely they will have the time to watch student videos or showreels on YouTube. In addition to that. It’s important to accept the role you are being asked to fill. You will be a runner tasked with making teas and coffees, getting release forms signed, keeping contributors sweet etc etc. Or if it’s a drama shoot you might be an assistant to the third AD helping get actors into the right place at the right time and wrangling extras. You’re not being brought on board to Direct the prime time ITV mega budget epic!
So why is a showreel or student video relevant at all? Well it shows you are bright. Its existence illustrates that you can shoot and edit (or be sharp enough to know others who can) and that you’re determined enough to make it in the media that you will put in the effort to produce a video and post it online.
Also be ambitious! If you produce a compelling video for YouTube that gets hundreds of thousands of hits (my record is 1.4 million) then that is a great thing to put in your introductory e mail, include on your CV and mention in job interviews, because it gives a clear indication that you’re made of the right stuff.
Just don’t expect to be calling the shots in your first TV gig!
If you’d like more advice on getting into the media industries, you should book a place on my online zoom workshop this Thursday by e mailing me at [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
Thursday September 10th 1pm to 5pm
'How To Get Into The Media Industries'
The course covers the following: generating media contacts, what to say in your introductory e mail, CV finessing for jobs in the media, job interview skills, TV runner skills, TV researcher skills, insider's tips and career strategy. It also gives an overview of the different roles in TV - to help you choose which area would suit you best. And we run through the do's and don'ts of job hunting. It is interactive and fun - as well as being extremely useful as you set about embarking on your career in these challenging times. This workshop will save you months, if not years, going down blind alleys as you look to embark on your career.
Having done a course like this looks great on your CV. A certificate is available on request. The workshop fee is £50 payable by BACS. If you’d really like to do the course but can’t make this date, please let me know and I will send you a recording of a previous workshop.
For testimonials please go to https://www.directproductions.co.uk/training-courses
Good luck!
Julian
TV Series Producer and Media Trainer
Direct Productions UK
Mob +44 (0) 77177 44321
www.directproductions.co.uk
For blogs, tips and work ex opportunities, follow us on social media!
Facebook, LinkedIn, Instagram, YouTube, Reddit, Tumblr: DirectProductionsUK
Twitter: DirectProdUK
submitted by directproductionsuk to u/directproductionsuk [link] [comments]


2020.09.03 21:28 monopolyinvestments Livio Review, Bonus, Demo Video From Art Flair

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IaIfUk2Mo4A

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submitted by monopolyinvestments to u/monopolyinvestments [link] [comments]


2020.09.02 14:51 Here_wego1 I have a pretty bad relationship with sex and nervousness. Please r/sex help me to get back on track.

Okay so 21M and this is all just the first time i’ve ever really said this stuff ‘out loud’.
I’ve had some pretty fun sex over the past few years with a couple girlfriends, one night stands and casual dating, but also a handful of not so great experiences where i’ve felt embarrassed.
Despite a large majority of positive experiences, overall I am pretty sure I have an awful relationship with sex and i ALWAYS feel what i believe to be way too nervous to the point it sometimes stops me from initiating anything (so i hate myself) or it affects my ability to get hard - which is so shit because if that happens i then feel even more nervous next time haha.
So I just really have a few questions for people who’ve maybe been in a similar spot:
I just want a healthy relationship with sex where i’m excited on the way back to an apartment not dreading the possibility i might mess up. Any guidance or help to ease my nerves would be massively appreciated.
submitted by Here_wego1 to sex [link] [comments]


2020.08.31 16:04 StageOne2591 I’ve reviewed 1,000+ good (and bad) resumes. Here are my tips on perfecting yours.

Hey guys! So over the past few years, I’ve looked at 1,000+ resumes and analyzed what differentiates a good resume from the bad. And, well, I ended up learning a lot.
I’ve been lurking on Reddit for like forever and wanted to give a bit back to the community. So, I created this mega-list of ALL the best resume tips & tricks I’ve learned over the years.
Hope you guys find it useful.
So, the tips are...
  1. Use a professional email. This one sounds like a no-brainer, but you’d be surprised by how many people still use extremely casual emails ([[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]), anyone?)
  2. Always double-check your contact information. You typo that phone number or email, and you’re not getting a callback.
  3. Try to mention achievements over responsibilities when possible. HR knows what your responsibilities are. What they WANT to know is how you stand out from the rest of the candidates. Keep in mind, though, that some positions don’t have achievements as such. In cases like that, it’s OK to go for responsibilities.
Good Example: Hit and surpassed the monthly KPI by 20% for 5 months in a row
Bad Example: Generated leads through cold calling
  1. Mention only relevant work experience. If you’re applying for a job in sales, HR doesn’t care about your experience in accounting.
  2. If you are a student with not a lot of work experience, jam-pack your resume with other experiences.
Think, extracurricular activities, personal projects you’ve worked on, volunteering, whatever else you can come up with. Don’t have much of that, either? Proactively work towards getting skills and experiences that are going to be useful for your future job.
In this case, you can even fill up your resume with work experience that’s not that relevant. Did you wait tables during the summer but now you are applying for a marketing job?
You can still mention it - it shows that you’ve done SOME work in your life, and aren’t afraid to get your hands dirty.
  1. Back up your experiences with data & numbers. All the entries on your resume should be super-specific. This allows you to stand out from the other candidates & show the recruiter that you’re a high-achiever.
DO: Managed and optimized the client’s Facebook ad account, increasing the ad ROI from 42% to 65%
DON’T: Managed the client’s Facebook ad account
  1. Are you about to switch careers? Mention it in your resume summary. Do something like:
“Sales professional with 5 years+ years of experience looking to transition into the position of a front-end web developer. Previous experience developing websites for 3 local business clients.”
This shows that you’re not just applying to random jobs - you’re ACTUALLY trying to transition into a new field. The 2nd sentence can be used to show the experience you DO have (if you have any).
  1. DON’T spray and pray. Most job-seekers go all-out with their job-search, applying for dozens of jobs per day. This, if you ask me, is counterproductive. You’re better off hand-picking the 5 best jobs each day, and tailoring your application to each of them.
  2. Speaking of tailoring - t’s pretty generic advice to “tailor your resume to the job you’re applying for,” but what does it mean in, y’know, practice?
So here’s how this works - most people make a single resume, and apply to dozens of positions with it.
The optimal approach is, instead, to create a different variation of your resume for each position you’re applying for, and apply to a handful of positions each day instead.
As for how to do the actual tailoring, first off, you need to read the job description in-depth. Then, go through your resume and see if you’ve mentioned all the skills and responsibilities that are required for the position.
In most cases, you’ll see that there ARE several essential skills and responsibilities that you DO have, but you didn't mention on your resume because you just didn’t think they were that important. This, usually, makes a huge difference.
  1. DON’T go over 1 page. Common advice, but again, a TON of people disregard this. Unless you’re a senior professional with 20+ years of experience, there’s no excuse for going over 1 page.
The recruiter doesn’t care about every single thing you’ve done in your life - they care about your relevant work experiences.
If you have 10 years of work experience in accounting, for example. 80% of your resume should be all about that, and 20% about any other experiences that help build up your profile for the position.
You shouldn’t mention what you did in high school, for example. Or which extracurricular activities you did in uni.
Surprisingly, students tend to be the ones that make 2-3 page resumes. Since they have a ton of extracurricular activities from university and want to stand out, they just jam everything they’ve done at uni into the resume.
Or, they also tend to go the other way around - they just mention their university, classes they’ve taken, and end up with a half-a-page resume. This isn’t a good approach, either.
  1. Don’t fluff. “Critical thinker” “good communicator” “strong teamwork skills.” What do these words have in common?
Well, it’s that every single recent graduate stuffs these in their resume. Avoid generic buzzword terms, because, let’s face it - they don’t help, and they are just space-fillers.
  1. Don’t include a photo. You want to get a job, not a date.
  2. Use DocSend to track your resume. This is a very little-knock hack, but it works pretty cool.
DocSend is a tool where you can upload your CV, and whenever anyone looks at it, you get a detailed run-down of how long they were looking at it, and when.
This is useful for a bunch of reasons, including:
You’ll know if the recruiter never looked at your resume. This means that your resume probably got lost in their inbox, and you should ping them.
Or, option 2, the recruiter looks at your resume for <5 seconds. This means that your resume doesn’t prove to the HR that you can do the job, and it requires further work.
Or, if they DO look at your resume for more than a minute, that means that they’re interested, and will probably get in touch soon.
Unfortunately, DocSend doesn’t work if you’re applying for bigger companies that ask you to fill in an application on their website. Small businesses or startups, though, are free game.
  1. If you have a B.A., don’t include your high school information.
  2. Proof-read your resume. Use Grammarly for this, or ask a friend to give you a 2nd opinion
  3. Feel free to include a hobbies section, but ONLY if you have space to fill, and no other relevant experience to fill it with. Hobbies are a good way to show a bit of your personality, but it’s not what’s going to get you the job.
Most recruiters are 50/50 on the section - some think it’s a waste of time, others think it helps humanize the candidate a bit more (and you might end up talking about the hobbies in the interview)
  1. Follow up on your application. Sometimes, your application ends up lost in the recruiter’s inbox - and that’s OK. HRs make human errors, too. Pro tip: use an email tracking tool like Streak to see if the recruiter opened your email. If they didn’t, you know for a fact that you need to follow up.
  2. Finally, keep in mind that when it comes to resumes & recruitment, a lot is opinion-based. Every single recruiter or HR manager has their own opinion on the resume specifics.
Some of them hate the hobbies section, others advocate for it.
Some of them recommend removing the resume objective section, others think it's useful.
If you find conflicting opinions on the web, don't just take either side as gospel - try to understand why they're recommending something, and how you can use it to your advantage.
...And that’s about it! Hope you guys found the tips useful ;) Let me know if you have any questions / feedback / completely disagree with something I wrote.
submitted by StageOne2591 to jobs [link] [comments]


2020.08.31 15:51 StageOne2591 I’ve reviewed 1,000+ good (and bad) resumes. Here are my tips on perfecting yours.

Hey guys! So I’m a co-founder at a resume builder company (Novoresume, if you’ve heard of us), and while developing the platform, I’ve looked at 1,000+ resumes and analyzed what differentiates a good resume from the bad. And, well, I ended up learning a lot.
I’ve been lurking on Reddit for like forever and wanted to give a bit back to the community. So, I created this mega-list of ALL the best resume tips & tricks I’ve learned over the years.
Hope you guys find it useful.

So, the tips are...

  1. Use a professional email. This one sounds like a no-brainer, but you’d be surprised by how many people still use extremely casual emails ([[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]), anyone?)
  2. Always double-check your contact information. You typo that phone number or email, and you’re not getting a callback.
  3. Try to mention achievements over responsibilities when possible. HR knows what your responsibilities are. What they WANT to know is how you stand out from the rest of the candidates. Keep in mind, though, that some positions don’t have achievements as such. In cases like that, it’s OK to go for responsibilities.
Good Example: Hit and surpassed the monthly KPI by 20% for 5 months in a row
Bad Example: Generated leads through cold calling
  1. Mention only relevant work experience. If you’re applying for a job in sales, HR doesn’t care about your experience in accounting.
  2. If you are a student with not a lot of work experience, jam-pack your resume with other experiences.
Think, extracurricular activities, personal projects you’ve worked on, volunteering, whatever else you can come up with. Don’t have much of that, either? Proactively work towards getting skills and experiences that are going to be useful for your future job.
In this case, you can even fill up your resume with work experience that’s not that relevant. Did you wait tables during the summer but now you are applying for a marketing job?
You can still mention it - it shows that you’ve done SOME work in your life, and aren’t afraid to get your hands dirty.
  1. Back up your experiences with data & numbers. All the entries on your resume should be super-specific. This allows you to stand out from the other candidates & show the recruiter that you’re a high-achiever.
DO: Managed and optimized the client’s Facebook ad account, increasing the ad ROI from 42% to 65%
DON’T: Managed the client’s Facebook ad account
  1. Are you about to switch careers? Mention it in your resume summary. Do something like:
“Sales professional with 5 years+ years of experience looking to transition into the position of a front-end web developer. Previous experience developing websites for 3 local business clients.”
This shows that you’re not just applying to random jobs - you’re ACTUALLY trying to transition into a new field. The 2nd sentence can be used to show the experience you DO have (if you have any).
  1. DON’T spray and pray. Most job-seekers go all-out with their job-search, applying for dozens of jobs per day. This, if you ask me, is counterproductive. You’re better off hand-picking the 5 best jobs each day, and tailoring your application to each of them.
  2. Speaking of tailoring - t’s pretty generic advice to “tailor your resume to the job you’re applying for,” but what does it mean in, y’know, practice?
So here’s how this works - most people make a single resume, and apply to dozens of positions with it.
The optimal approach is, instead, to create a different variation of your resume for each position you’re applying for, and apply to a handful of positions each day instead.
As for how to do the actual tailoring, first off, you need to read the job description in-depth. Then, go through your resume and see if you’ve mentioned all the skills and responsibilities that are required for the position.
In most cases, you’ll see that there ARE several essential skills and responsibilities that you DO have, but you didn't mention on your resume because you just didn’t think they were that important. This, usually, makes a huge difference.
  1. DON’T go over 1 page. Common advice, but again, a TON of people disregard this. Unless you’re a senior professional with 20+ years of experience, there’s no excuse for going over 1 page.
The recruiter doesn’t care about every single thing you’ve done in your life - they care about your relevant work experiences.
If you have 10 years of work experience in accounting, for example. 80% of your resume should be all about that, and 20% about any other experiences that help build up your profile for the position.
You shouldn’t mention what you did in high school, for example. Or which extracurricular activities you did in uni.
Surprisingly, students tend to be the ones that make 2-3 page resumes. Since they have a ton of extracurricular activities from university and want to stand out, they just jam everything they’ve done at uni into the resume.
Or, they also tend to go the other way around - they just mention their university, classes they’ve taken, and end up with a half-a-page resume. This isn’t a good approach, either.
  1. Don’t fluff. “Critical thinker” “good communicator” “strong teamwork skills.” What do these words have in common?
Well, it’s that every single recent graduate stuffs these in their resume. Avoid generic buzzword terms, because, let’s face it - they don’t help, and they are just space-fillers.
  1. Don’t include a photo. You want to get a job, not a date.
  2. Use DocSend to track your resume. This is a very little-knock hack, but it works pretty cool.
DocSend is a tool where you can upload your CV, and whenever anyone looks at it, you get a detailed run-down of how long they were looking at it, and when.
This is useful for a bunch of reasons, including:
You’ll know if the recruiter never looked at your resume. This means that your resume probably got lost in their inbox, and you should ping them.
Or, option 2, the recruiter looks at your resume for <5 seconds. This means that your resume doesn’t prove to the HR that you can do the job, and it requires further work.
Or, if they DO look at your resume for more than a minute, that means that they’re interested, and will probably get in touch soon.
Unfortunately, DocSend doesn’t work if you’re applying for bigger companies that ask you to fill in an application on their website. Small businesses or startups, though, are free game.
  1. Use a resume builder. Don’t want to toot my own horn, but you’re really making your life a pain if you’re using Illustrator or Word.
If you’re using Word, your resume layout gets completely messed up if you make a tiny change to it.
Illustrator resumes, on the other hand, are not readable by applicant tracking systems. Most large companies use ATS these days, so that means your resume gets insta-rejected before a recruiter can look at it.
  1. If you have a B.A., don’t include your high school information.
  2. Proof-read your resume. Use Grammarly for this, or ask a friend to give you a 2nd opinion
  3. Feel free to include a hobbies section, but ONLY if you have space to fill, and no other relevant experience to fill it with. Hobbies are a good way to show a bit of your personality, but it’s not what’s going to get you the job.
Most recruiters are 50/50 on the section - some think it’s a waste of time, others think it helps humanize the candidate a bit more (and you might end up talking about the hobbies in the interview)
  1. Follow up on your application. Sometimes, your application ends up lost in the recruiter’s inbox - and that’s OK. HRs make human errors, too. Pro tip: use an email tracking tool like Streak to see if the recruiter opened your email. If they didn’t, you know for a fact that you need to follow up.
  2. Finally, keep in mind that when it comes to resumes & recruitment, a lot is opinion-based. Every single recruiter or HR manager has their own opinion on the resume specifics.
Some of them hate the hobbies section, others advocate for it.
Some of them recommend removing the resume objective section, others think it's useful.
If you find conflicting opinions on the web, don't just take either side as gospel - try to understand why they're recommending something, and how you can use it to your advantage.
...And that’s about it! Hope you guys found the tips useful ;) Let me know if you have any questions / feedback / completely disagree with something I wrote.
submitted by StageOne2591 to careeradvice [link] [comments]


2020.08.30 01:33 kite21 General tips for NA players going to JP

Hi, I am Kite Mcclure, you may remember me from topics like Tips and tricks for the average player and its sequel. Today I want to give some tips to the people migrating from NA:

submitted by kite21 to magiarecord [link] [comments]


2020.08.28 13:55 directproductionsuk Julian’s TV show date announced

Julian’s TV show date announced
By Julian Dismore: TV Series Producer and Media Skills Trainer
https://preview.redd.it/6psigfqnfqj51.jpg?width=3508&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d6ad92abac2312bdb537b842c9318d1fa1794549
Earlier this year my production team and I filmed a documentary series called ‘The Mega Council Estate Next Door’ about the rich and poor living cheek by jowl in London. It was a difficult shoot – made even more challenging by Covid!
Because of the pandemic I had to edit the series myself at home on my Avid edit suite, which was really hard work, but I think the programme turned out well. Hopefully you will agree if you get chance to see it. It starts going out on Sunday 6th September at 9pm on Five.
Making an observational series in deprived areas can be quite dangerous. On a previous series I made in Jaywick, Essex, a local who objected to being in the back of a shot threatened to cut my head off and burn me alive. I had to explain to him that he’d got it the wrong way round – he’d have to burn me alive and then cut my head off or it wouldn’t work! Bizarrely the angry local and I ended up good friends!
But often the toughest documentaries to make are the most rewarding, especially if you’re showing how hard life is for people living in poverty through no fault of their own. The Jaywick roads and housing were appalling until we transmitted that series. Afterwards the local council improved them. Funny that! Sometimes your programmes can make a positive difference – and that is a great feeling.
If you’d like to work in the media industries, you should book a place on one of my online zoom courses next week by e mailing me at [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
Monday August 31st 1pm to 5pm or Tuesday September 1st 5pm to 10pm
'How To Get Into The Media Industries'
The course covers the following: generating media contacts, what to say in your introductory e mail, CV finessing for jobs in the media, job interview skills, TV runner skills, TV researcher skills, insider's tips and career strategy. It also gives an overview of the different roles in TV - to help you choose which area would suit you best. And we run through the do's and don'ts of job hunting. It is interactive and fun - as well as being extremely useful as you set about embarking on your career in these challenging times. This workshop will save you months, if not years, going down blind alleys as you look to embark on your career.
If you’d really like to do the courses but can’t make these dates, please let me know and I will send you a recording of a previous workshop.
For testimonials please go to https://www.directproductions.co.uk/training-courses
For more advice on the media industries, follow me on social media (see flyer)
Good luck!
Julian
TV Series Producer and Media Trainer
Direct Productions UK
Mob +44 (0) 77177 44321
www.directproductions.co.uk
For blogs, tips and work ex opportunities, follow us on social media!
Facebook, LinkedIn, Instagram, YouTube, Reddit, Tumblr: DirectProductionsUK
Twitter: DirectProdUK
submitted by directproductionsuk to u/directproductionsuk [link] [comments]


2020.08.21 17:47 ninjakitt3n [MAIN] Mega Raffle - 1 Winner - Including NES and Mario!! 1394 spots at $2/ea

Mega Raffle - 1 Winner - Including NES and Mario!
Item Name Set Number: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EvPRqle7hjMNv978G8R-oyTcdeCCjNhtHPhMKnCSioU/edit#gid=0
Lego Price: $2382
Date: 8/21 12PM EST
Shipping: $400 total, remainder transferred to raffle fund - Shipping Quote Screenshot https://imgur.com/a/lonH2zA - 2 Massive Boxes. This is 51 Sets so it takes up a ton of room
Raffle Total/Spots: 1394 spots @ $2/spot - 3 spots for fund
Price justification? Lego/Target/Walmart/Amazon/Bricklink
Call spots? Y
Spot limit per person? No
Duration of spot limit? No
Location(Country): USA
Timestamp/Pics: https://imgur.com/gallery/zoSHB9j
Will ship international? Yes. Winner will pay difference above $400, This will be very expensive
Description: Lots of great sets to build while you and your family are stuck at home! If you build MOCS this is the raffle for you! I bought these originally to part out but I am getting married so I need to thin out the LEGO collection a little bit. Good Luck!

PayPal Info: [REDACTED]

Tip BoyAndHisBlob
Number of vacant slots: 0
Number of unpaid users: 1
Number of unpaid slots: 190
This slot list is created and updated by The EDC Raffle Tool by BoyAndHisBlob.
The slot list contains 1394 slots and is too large to post. The current slot list can be found here.

submitted by ninjakitt3n to lego_raffles [link] [comments]


2020.08.21 14:16 Ihzle [SELL][US] New/Unused Makeup + Skincare. All major brands, truly priced to sell. Freebies + quick shipping!

Tried to price these items to sell, everything is 30-50% cheaper than lowest Ebay prices. If a price doesn't make sense for you let me know! I've lowered prices since last post.

LIP

Sephora Jem & The Holograms Truly Outrageous Liquid Lipstick Set * $25.00
PAT McGRATH Mini LUST: Gloss Trio Skin Show-Cool Nudes Ltd Ed * $19
Ofra Lip Gloss Mocha * $6
Shiseido Modern Matte Powder Lipstick - # 502 Whisper * $8 (tip got damaged by lid)
Colourpop So Juicy Plumping Lip Gloss Gentle Thing * $7
Bite Beauty Amuse Bouche Lipstick SUGARCANE * $18
Kat Von D Studded Kiss Crème Lipstick LOLITA * $15
Kat Von D Studded Kiss Crème Lipstick MERCY * $5 (mini size)
Sephora Rouge Matte M08 Peace & Rock * $8
Blackup Paris Lipstick 34m * $8
Bareminerals Gen Nude Matte Liquid Lipcolor JUJU * $5
Wet N Wild Shall We Slay 36325 Liquid Catsuit Metallic Lipstick * $5
TOO FACED Tutti Frutti Juicy Fruits Comfort Lip Glaze Gloss FRUIT PUNCH * $7
NYX Filler Instinct Plumping Lip Polish Gloss LETS GLAZE * $5
Sephora Kissin’ Up Lip Gloss Set * $12 (partial set)
Colourpop Ultra Metallic Lipstick FEVER PITCH * $12
SEPHORA LIP CRAYON COLOR CHEAP DATE - $7
Stila Stay All Day Liquid Lipstick BESO SHIMMER + PATINA SHIMMER - $8 for both (half sized)
Fenty Match Stix Lipstick CONFETTI * $22
BOBBI BROWN LUXE MATTE LIP ‘SEMI-NAKED’ * $12
NARS Velvet Lip Glide ‘Le Palace’ * $8
Bobbi Brown Luxe Liquid Lip High Shine ITALIAN ROSE 3 * $18
Smashbox Always On Metallic Matte Liquid Lipstick Vino Noir * $9
Givenchy Le Rouge Mat Lipstick 330 Violine Retro * $15
Urban Decay Hi-Fi Shine Ultra Cushion Lip Gloss BACKTALK * $10
Marc Jacobs Enamored Hi-Shine Gloss Lip Lacquer MAKE ME! * $12

EYE

Laura Mercier Caviar Stick Eye Colour Full Size PLUM * $7
Marc Jacobs Mega Lash Volumizing Mascara - 30 Blacquer * $5 (.1oz)
Laura Mercier Eye Basics Eye Shadow - Eyebright (Pale Blue) * $18
Urban Decay heavy Metal Glitter Gel Distortion * $6
Too Faced LA BELLE CAROUSEL VAULT New In Box RARE * $75
Violet Voss DREAM GLITTER TOPPER LIQUID EYESHADOW MINI - $6
Violet Voss Cosmetic Glitter HOLY GRAIL* $4
Urban Decay Brow Beater Microfine Brow Pencil And Brush WARM BROWN * $14
TARTE LIGHTS CAMERA LASHES 4-IN-1 MASCARA * $6
Marc Jacobs Velvet Noir Major Volume Mascara 10 Noir * $16

FACE

Milk Makeup Face Gloss * $8 (.42oz)
Caudalie Vinosource Soothing Moisturizing Sorbet * $13 (1.3oz)
Smashbox 24 Hour Photo Finish Shadow Primer * $3 (.14oz)
Korres Quercetin & Oak Anti-Aging Eye Primer * $17 (.34oz)
Makeup Revolution Vivid Baked Highlighter in Rose Gold - $12
Maybelline Master Chrome Metallic Highlighter 100 MOLTEN GOLD * $5
Giorgio Armani Fluid Sheer SHADE #2 * $15
SEPHORA BEAUTY AMPLIFIER MATTIFY MATTIFYING H20 GEL PRIMER * $7 (1oz)
NYX Professional Makeup Angel Veil Skin Perfecting Primer * $5 (1oz)

SKINCARE

pFormula 10.0.6 Picture Perfect Day Daily Moisturizer Guava Vitamin C SPF 15 * $6 (2.54oz)
Etude House Moistfull Super Collagen Ampoule 90% * $15 (2oz)
bareMinerals SkinLongevity Vital Power Infusion Serum * $20 (1.7oz)
DermaDoctor Shrinking Beauty + Brazilian Bomb Shell * $7 (both 1oz)
Sephora Face Moisturizer 'Coconut Water' * $7
Sephora Face Moisturizer 'Coconut Water' * $7
Sephora Face Moisturizer 'Rose' * $7
Tonymoly Aloe Soothing Lotion * $6 (7oz)
Thierry Mugler AURA body lotion * $5 (1.7oz)
Ole Henriksen Power Peel transforming facial 3-step system * $10 (2 treatments)
Charlotte Tilbury MAGIC CREAM Moisturizer * $42
KORRES WILD ROSE SMOOTHIE Brightening Priming Moisturiser * $14 (1oz)
TARTE Maracuja Oil * $4 (.23oz travel size)
HERBIVORE Brighten Pineapple + Gemstone GLOW MASK * $10 (.5oz)
Perricone MD H2 Elemental Energy Hydrating Cloud Cream * $11
SUNDAY RILEY Good Genes All-In-One Lactic Acid Treatment * $32 (1oz)
Clinique Pep start hydrorush moisturiser SPF 20 * $17 (full size)

PALETTE

Bad Habit After Shock Eyeshadow Palette * $9 (swatched 1)
H&M Eye Colour Palette 9 Shades Smoky Nudes * $6
H&M Eye Colour Palette 9 Shades Twilight & Rose * $6
Too Faced Sugar Pop Eye Shadow Palette * $12 (light use)
NYX In Your Element Wind Palette * $10 (1 shade swatched)

HAIR

Moroccanoil The Original Treatment * $7 (.85oz)
Manic Panic Hair Dye Semi-Permanent HOT HOT PINK * $9 (4oz)
Sparks Long Lasting Bright Permanent Dye Hair Color Cream SUNBURST YELLOW * $6
Living Proof Full Shampoo * $11 (8 oz)
Living Proof Full Conditioner * $11 (8 oz)
HIF Hydration Support Cleansing Conditioner * $10 (6oz)

BRUSH

SEPHORA COLLECTION PRO Blush Brush #99 * $20

MISC

Charlotte Tilbury Leather Zippered pouch + Keychain * $15
Too Faced x Kat Von D Better Together zippered pouch * $10
submitted by Ihzle to makeupexchange [link] [comments]


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2020.08.17 02:00 TopOfTheBot Top Posts and Comments of the Day

Top of the Day for 17/08/2020

For frequently asked questions, please click here. Times shown on this page are in UTC, and dates are displayed as Day/Month/Year.
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Most Upvoted Posts of the Day

First Place
The biggest protest in the history of Belarus is happening right now in Minsk
posted by 1MorePint on /pics
Click here to view the post. ● 149,784 Upvotes ● Posted: 16/08/2020 at 13:10:39 UTC
Second Place
Sign me up
posted by ThrowinUpGengarSigns on /memes
Click here to view the post. ● 119,383 Upvotes ● Posted: 16/08/2020 at 05:50:43 UTC
Third Place
It's hard to be a wildlife photographer
posted by I_AM_YUGESH on /memes
Click here to view the post. ● 117,857 Upvotes ● Posted: 16/08/2020 at 11:05:03 UTC
Fourth Place
Sleeping well
posted by SarahJTHappy on /WhitePeopleTwitter
Click here to view the post. ● 109,957 Upvotes ● Posted: 16/08/2020 at 00:52:25 UTC
Fifth Place
I found 70 pictures googling \"Wolves\" and created this!
posted by AndroidPro on /nextfuckinglevel
Click here to view the post. ● 105,340 Upvotes ● Posted: 16/08/2020 at 06:55:21 UTC

Most Downvoted Posts of the Day

This section is currently being worked on.

Most Upvoted Comments of the Day

IMPORTANT NOTE: This section may be not be accurate as it is under development. Currently this only gets the most upvoted top-level comments from the most upvoted posts today.
First Place
Good luck, people in Belarus.
posted by luw123 on /pics
Click here to view the post. ● 11,742 Upvotes ● Posted: 16/08/2020 at 14:25:38 UTC
Second Place
Now hear me out: what if aliens do the same and are not allowed to interfere with human nature?
posted by Mongocom on /memes
Click here to view the post. ● 4,569 Upvotes ● Posted: 16/08/2020 at 13:18:16 UTC
Third Place
There was a whole controversy over a documentary in the uk. I think it was dynasties. Either way they were recording penguins in the Antarctic and baby penguins fell down a steep slope and couldnt get back up the film crew were so heart broken by this that as the mother penguins began to leave they build a ramp though the snow hill to get the babies up there. This was the only way they thought they could get them up without \"disturbing natures natural proceeding\". Even after there were multiple arguments over the subject and numerous articles
posted by Just_a_guy69_ on /memes
Click here to view the post. ● 4,031 Upvotes ● Posted: 16/08/2020 at 14:05:18 UTC
Fourth Place
This looks like a recruitment video that wolves would make
posted by joeyo1423 on /nextfuckinglevel
Click here to view the post. ● 3,454 Upvotes ● Posted: 16/08/2020 at 07:06:17 UTC
Fifth Place
*Cat jumps from a 15 foot tall tree and survives * #Egyptians: GOD
posted by floorgang-69_420 on /memes
Click here to view the post. ● 2,926 Upvotes ● Posted: 16/08/2020 at 06:02:08 UTC

Most Downvoted Comments of the Day

This section is currently being worked on.

Most Gilded Posts of the Day

IMPORTANT NOTE: This section may be not be accurate as it is under development.
First Place
I made another mega thread with links relating to unexplained/unresolved mysteries and phenomenon. I thought I should share it with you all.
posted by AMissKathyNewman on /UnresolvedMysteries
Click here to view the post. ● 1,955 Upvotes ● 3 reward(s). ● 1 silver reward(s), 1 gold reward(s) and 1 platinum reward(s) ● Posted: 16/08/2020 at 10:11:55 UTC
Second Place
Poop 69 remake (SoundCloud: Time Station, IG: ben_odell_of_timestation)
posted by swoop_arpeggimo on /RedditSessions
Click here to view the post. ● 779 Upvotes ● 2 reward(s). ● 0 silver reward(s), 1 gold reward(s) and 1 platinum reward(s) ● Posted: 16/08/2020 at 15:19:06 UTC
Third Place
Mmuh day 2
posted by explosivenuke1 on /memes
Click here to view the post. ● 49,936 Upvotes ● 2 reward(s). ● 1 silver reward(s), 1 gold reward(s) and 0 platinum reward(s) ● Posted: 16/08/2020 at 17:07:19 UTC
Fourth Place
In Star Wars Episode 9, Kylo Ren receives a trumpet from ...Black Widow? Wait what the fuck am I watching
posted by DumplingBoiii on /shittymoviedetails
Click here to view the post. ● 84,180 Upvotes ● 2 reward(s). ● 1 silver reward(s), 1 gold reward(s) and 0 platinum reward(s) ● Posted: 15/01/2020 at 16:08:45 UTC
Fifth Place
Put a cup and enjoy a soothing beverage
posted by LOLED_AKAASI on /dankmemes
Click here to view the post. ● 29,148 Upvotes ● 2 reward(s). ● 0 silver reward(s), 1 gold reward(s) and 1 platinum reward(s) ● Posted: 16/08/2020 at 13:25:15 UTC

Most Gilded Comments of the Day

IMPORTANT NOTE: This section may be not be accurate as it is under development.
First Place
USPS employee here. Specifically I’m a carrier and I also have informed delivery. `There has been so many delayed packages as of late. The other day I didn’t receive a whole tray of mail for my route. I had a customer tell me the next day that I didn’t deliver any of the letters he was expecting from HIS informed delivery. He was right, because I didn’t have them. ` Also, I’ve been getting ECC complaints (like the one you filed for your missing package) for about 3 packages a day on average. Those notices get sent to us so we can correct a misdelivery before management contacts you back to inform you about what happened to your package. The problem is I’m getting complaints for packages that I’ve never even received yet. Those packages usually show up within a day or two in my hamper to be delivered. ` You’re right that mail has been taking a while. But I doubt your mailman has anything to do with it. Stealing mail is a federal crime that can result in jail time for the carrier. Crime does happen within the post office. But I’ve been there for 6 years and have only heard of a small handful of cases. We are going through a lot of offices being understaffed and receiving delayed mail.`
posted by fukwityourboi on /LifeProTips
Click here to view the post. ● 9,890 Upvotes ● 3 reward(s). ● 1 silver reward(s), 1 gold reward(s) and 1 platinum reward(s) ● Posted: 16/08/2020 at 15:55:25 UTC
Second Place
There are so many places you can pivot from banquets. Beverage sales is a good one - your former boss likely has an in with the distributors they used and can put in a good word for you. You can move into sales or planning within hospitality - small family events are still happening. There’s also the country club world, which is a real easy move from banquet serving since you’re likely already used to behaving in a specific way around rich people. You’re also a really good writer - have you considered copywriting or editing? The world is your oyster, shuck it into the martini glass of your choice. Good luck 🍀
posted by hydrangeasinbloom on /TalesFromYourServer
Click here to view the post. ● 869 Upvotes ● 2 reward(s). ● 1 silver reward(s), 1 gold reward(s) and 0 platinum reward(s) ● Posted: 15/08/2020 at 17:55:41 UTC
Third Place
Talking things out is good, so like someone else mentioned, if you don't have a close friend you can verbalize these thoughts to (and will listen non-judgmentally and compassionately allow you the space to simply express yourself), then therapy is a good option to start. `Even before therapy, journalling is good. You're just doing a 'brain dump' of your musings, thoughts, emotions onto a page. It can really feel like this huge weight is lifted off of your shoulders when you do this. Journalling is self-therapy. Just write without a particular goal. Write a stream of consciousness. And then read it back afterward to yourself. You'll feel better.` Secondarily, this is really the crux of humanity and life itself. We go through life 'seeking'. Particularly in a modern world. In the past, our meaning, purpose, mode for being was established by the small communities we grew up in (our family unit, our church/faith, our vocation, our surrounding community). `But those things, in the modern era, are mostly gone. Or at least they're very diffuse and ill-defined. Individualism means we make our own meaning. We have ultimate freedom to choose our path, choose our career, choose our values, choose our goals.` This is a good thing. But it's also a double-edged sword. It means there's little direction, and it's much harder for us to commit, invest and take responsibility for something when it feels like there's 8000 other choices out there and we can live our life however we want. How do we make the decision? Our beliefs, values, standards & boundaries can be whatever we want them to be. How do we narrow it down? `Like you said, 'marry, have kids, advance in career' is the usual narrative most people ascribe to. It's right there in front of us; it's conveniently spelled out. It's also socially acceptable. So we go for it. There's nothing particularly wrong with it, but I think the reason why people feel this existential angst while they're in the pursuit of it (or even like you mentioned once they already have it) is because they unconsciously begin to realize that it was something that was bestowed upon them, not something they really selected, and that there isn't much fanfare or hurrah around it when you decide to commit to it.` You kind of have to find that praise, fanfare, engagement, fulfillment yourself nowadays. It's up to you. The decision to commit to something (and someone) is a very personal decision that's now made on values that you decide for yourself. It really is just a leap of ultimate faith & confidence that \"This is the way I want to live my life\" and you have to put blinders on and ignore all the distractions along the way, all the naysayers, all the people doing other things that your monkey mind will go, \"But what if I did that, too?\" `So simply accept the above as truth, first of all. That it's okay to feel lost. That it's okay to feel unsure about what the hell you're supposed to be doing. I think modern life has kind of been set up that way. It's been set up to disconnect us, numb us, and confuse us into just being attached to consumerism, sex, money, external validation. It has removed a lot of sense of community, purpose & fulfillment that existed in the past. It has definitely given us a lot of freedom, but too much choice is not necessarily always a good thing, not for the human mind.` Once we've accepted that this is the case, we just have to be mindful in how we're going to grapple with it. It means we have to accept responsibility that IT'S UP TO US. No one's going to save you. No one's going to come up to you and say, \"This is how you should live.\" That doesn't exist anymore. If you mess up, no one's going to hold you accountable. If you succeed, no one's going to be there to make you feel like you're worthy. It might seem that way, but it's not really the truth. `So you have to get to the point where you begin to elucidate your own values, your own standards, the mindset & philosophy through which you wish to see the world and live your life. At that point you can begin to 'author' your future life, your future self, the person you wish to be and become, and the mode of being through which you want to travel. Doing so is a leap of faith; it's a decision. And only you can make it.` Keep in mind, first and foremost, that you have to combine this emotional, mental, deep work with physical, deliberate action. You must not only think yourself into new action but you must also act your way into new thinking. Both must occur simultaneously. `So as a TL;DR, you don't 'find' a purpose. You make one. And you decide for yourself that \"Yep, that's it.\" The only reason why you think you have to 'find' one is because you think that there's a 'right' way for you. There really isn't. It's what you make it.` Good luck.
posted by bobloblawdds on /AskMenOver30
Click here to view the post. ● 211 Upvotes ● 2 reward(s). ● 1 silver reward(s), 1 gold reward(s) and 0 platinum reward(s) ● Posted: 16/08/2020 at 13:39:47 UTC
Fourth Place
Let's just ban the death penalty entirely. ` Edit: for all of the people upvoting me, I would just say that when I mean ban I mean ban. Reddit constantly gets justice boners whenever there's a child molester caught or particularly gruesome murder. The top comment is almost always some call for \"justice\" in the form of death. That's not justice, that's revenge. One of the points of the law is to separate that understandable desire for primal revenge from true justice. Human rights are human rights. You don't lose them just because you're a terrible human being. Remember that when you see one of those threads.`
posted by PermanentEvolution on /news
Click here to view the post. ● 2,665 Upvotes ● 2 reward(s). ● 0 silver reward(s), 1 gold reward(s) and 1 platinum reward(s) ● Posted: 16/08/2020 at 16:20:53 UTC
Fifth Place
Those are called Nascar titties. They always go for the pits.
posted by Grasshoppa01 on /gifs
Click here to view the post. ● 27 Upvotes ● 1 reward(s). ● 0 silver reward(s), 1 gold reward(s) and 0 platinum reward(s) ● Posted: 16/08/2020 at 17:17:23 UTC
submitted by TopOfTheBot to TopOfThe [link] [comments]


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